Contemporary social sciences typically refrain from long-term forecasts and attempts at constructing “grand theories” of global dynamics – researches focus instead on specific (and rather narrow) empirical research questions. In some cases, however, these narrow studies could implicitly become foundations for generalized statements concerning the world development. This paper reviews two avenues of research of this type that are rapidly developing in the last decade – persistence studies (arguing that historical factors have an impact on contemporary political, economic and social development even in spite of apparent historical discontinuities) and studies of personal characteristics of politicians and bureaucrats (arguing that biographies of decision-makers can influence political development to the same extent as structural characteristics of the society). The conclusions of these approaches contradict each other but their research logic is built upon similar assumptions. Both approaches use quantitative methods; the choice of cases for research is driven to a large extent by the data availability; in both cases theoretical foundations of research are rather weak; in both cases the multitude of articles reflects not only the potential of the research approaches but also the problems of the incentives in the scientific community. This paper reviews the main conclusions, advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and discusses their potential for studying long-term development perspectives.

Rising U.S.-Chinese tensions affect all East Asian nations in almost every sphere. This kind of a tangible influence originates in decrease of predictability of the major actors behavior and their respective efforts in enhancing military security. As a matter of fact, regional environment is suffering from mutual distrust and cyclic assertive reaction of the players. J. Biden’s statement that “America is back at the table” affirms Washington’s intentions to develop its ally and partner ties with the East Asian nations. The most obvious reasons are opposing China’s rise and suppressing DPRK. However, not all regional states are ready to make such a strategic choice and support the United States completely, demonstrating binding commitments. Some nations accent on obtaining efficiency in defense, while others prefer to maintain an equal distance from either Washington or Beijing, and maintain a reliable dialogue with both of them. Mostly East Asian nations refrain from spoiling relationship with now-mighty China but it seems more and more complicated to justify rocketing of their respective defense budgets and strive for gaining an extra military capacity. This factor seriously destabilizes regional security complex of the East Asia, where Russia is also a potent actor so far.

COVID-19 has shaken the world and forced us to rethink our development strategies and the whole systemic framework. Although globalization facilitated the pandemic, deglobalization will not prevail. Globalization will be rather transformed to promote positive and reduce/eliminate its negative effects. Pandemic has, apart from negative effects (spreading the virus), demonstrated some very positive sides of globalization like scientific cooperation. Enhancing resilience has become the main strategy of the mankind not only in terms of containing the pandemic but also in ex ante preventing it in the long run. A combination of containing and ex ante preventing the pandemics looks like then best strategy, because viruses are here to stay among us. It can be done by resolving Rodrik’s, to him, unresolvable trilemma, between autonomy, GLO and democracy on the national as well multilateral le vel. On the basis of possible future scenario developments, we demonstrate how multilateral solutions are a must to create the stable and effective framework for the adjustments and redesigning of the strategies and behaviour of all agents (individuals, firms and states) in a proactive way by thinking out of the existing boxes. Such a multilateral framework has to allow enough space for the national actions when they are better suited to national priorities and to fill the gaps, if international institution fail to be successful in addressing new challenges. Rethinking of our mind sets and theories are required and even new types of education and training for the creation of new competences of micro agents.

At the turn of the second and third decades of the XXIst century, new trends began to form in the economies of Latin America, which experienced deep crisis shocks. In the future the development of these trends can adjust and strengthen the place and role of the region in the system of world economic relations. One of these trends is the rapid growth of the technology sector based on innovation and digitalization that is able to ensure the transition of the region to the "new business normal", understanding by this term the consistent structural modernization and organic adaptation of the economies of Latin American countries to post-Covid realities. The main actors of Latin America's transit to the new economy are Latin American transnational corporations, the so called multilatinas, and their avant-garde – technolatinas associated with innovations and high technology. At the same time, it is critically important to achieve a systemic relationship between the economic policy of the state and the business strategy of technologically advanced private companies. Effective public-private partnership seems to be a necessary condition for long-overdue institutional and structural reforms, the purpose of which should be to turn Latin America into a "region of start-ups" and a space of high-tech Ecosystems. The article shows that the strategic task at the stage of macroeconomic transition is to expand the domestic and foreign markets of the countries of the region for all types of Latin American goods and services, including technological and high-tech ones. According to the author, the best way to achieve this goal lies in the formation of a triple circulation economy or, in other words, the parallel and balanced development of national and regional markets with the simultaneous activation and diversification of foreign economic relations far beyond Latin America. It goes without saying, it is a long process and the countries of the region are only at the very beginning of the marked transformation.

Solar and wind electricity generation has increased more than 6 times during the past decade and the share of these energy sources in electricity production in some countries has already reached 30% or more. The dependents of solar and wind power plants on weather conditions significantly increases the requirements for the level of system flexibility in the electric power industry, which are going to grow as the low-carbon paradigm advances. The article focuses at the analysis of the prospects for the development of battery energy storage technologies as the main source of increasing the ability of the power system to effectively adapt to the changes in demand and supply over different time horizons. The author shows that, firstly, the abrupt acceleration in the rate of commissioning of large-scale stationary electricity storage systems in 2020–2021 is of a long-term nature and is due not only to a significant reduction in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, but also to state support and special tuning of electricity markets regulation in the United States, China and some European countries. Secondly, the competition among manufacturers in the lithium-ion battery market is bound to intensify. Thirdly, existing technologies allow only intraday storage of electricity with acceptable costs. The development of a lowcost method for long-term storage of electricity could radically expand the boundaries of variable renewable energy sources and open the way to achieving carbon neutrality. Many large companies and small start-ups, as well as leading universities and laboratories, are actively searching for such a technology with the support of government funding and private financing, including venture capital.

The article analyzes the main characteristics of agricultural employment in the whole world, certain regions and countries of the world. Changes in employment in agriculture and the influence of various factors on them for the period from 1991 to 2019 are considered. The decline in employment in agriculture in the world in both absolute and relative terms with the growth of agricultural production indicates an increase in labor productivity and a gradual diversification of the rural economy. The dynamics of agricultural employment is extremely heterogeneous across regions and countries, which is caused not only by changes in the agricultural sphere itself, but also by the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of the countries and regions. The greatest rates of decline since 1991 have occurred in many developing countries in East and South-East Asia, as well as in Eastern Europe, which are undergoing a transformation of socio-economic and political development. The slow pace is observed in developed countries that are at a post-industrial stage of development with low agricultural employment, as well as in developing countries in South Asia and Africa, where economic and employment transformation has not yet begun.

The article examines new approaches to ensure food security in a number of developed countries, included in the top 10 world leaders of the Global Food Security Index. The shift in strategies has come as a result of an increase in the diseases attributable to inadequate and inadequate nutritional health and an increase in the burden on national health systems. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exposed the weaknesses of food systems in all countries, exacerbating inequalities in access to safe and healthy food at affordable prices. These challenges stem from the complex nature of food security, while policies to ensure food security are fragmented and implemented by several authorities. In addition, due to the differences in national nutritional systems, reflecting the cultural characteristics of each country, it is impossible to develop uniform recommendations for healthy eating. In Russia, as in other countries, the existing dietary patterns do not comply with the recommendations of the WHO and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and the efforts made to optimize them will not give the expected effect without the integration of policies in the field of agriculture, food industry and health care. Foreign experience shows the need for a system-oriented approach to the formation of food security policy based on the integration of all interrelated policies and concerted action in different sectors of the economy, including healthcare.

The global trends in the transition to a carbon-free economy, the foundation for which was laid during the 2008 crisis, are now being strengthened by two factors. Firstly, the world community has recognized the fact of climate change as a result of anthropogenic impact. Secondly, the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed many states, investors, and private companies to more actively implement decarbonization strategies. This is not only due to the concerns about increasing environmental problems. Decarbonization and the energy transition can be an effective tool for stimulating economic development, by attracting investment and creating new jobs.
This article examines the ways of energy transition, its advantages and risks for such countries and regions as China, the countries of the West (the EU and the USA), the Middle East and North Africa. It is noted that the energy transition is a global trend, but it does not imply an instant abandonment of fossil fuels and its replacement with renewable energy sources. It is a complex and long-term phenomenon, including both gradual changes, as well as structural transformations and systemic shifts.
The analysis of the consequences of the considered trend for Russia is carried out. It is shown that the country's strategic documents reflect a cautious approach based on the plans to increase hydrocarbon exports. However, the author notes that maintaining this approach is fraught with a number of economic and political risks.
According to the results of the study, the importance of developing comprehensive strategic approaches aimed at leveling the identified risks is emphasized, specific proposals for implementing a gradual energy transition in the Russian Federation are formulated.

Decommissioning of nuclear power plants is increasingly becoming one of heavily discussed issues in the controversy over admissibility of nuclear power as a low-carbon technology in the climate-neutral Europe by 2050 in the face of rising shut-down reactors numbers. The rise of the due to be dismantled reactors figures is to be explained by ageing reactorfleet, nuclear phase-out decisions in several EU countries and by the change from deferred to immediate dismantling strategy. Being a quite costly undertaking, immediate dismantling of a nuclear facility requires financial resources that should be sufficient and available by the beginning of dismantling activities. Despite the commonly accepted “polluter pays” principle that means that the nuclear facility owner should provide necessary financing for decommissioning, there are several cases in Europe when the costs of dismantling activities are borne by the state or even by the budget of the European Union. The general reason for that is the lack of financial resources accumulated by the nuclear facility owner. The European Union has timely recognized the potential risk of lacking decommissioning financing and has stepped up certain pro-active measures in a form of non-binding recommendations on the management of decommissioning funds and binding Euratom directive setting ultimate responsibility of the state for nuclear waste utilization. The Euratom directive that is to be transposed into national legislation requires a creation of a legal framework ensuring safe accumulation of sufficient financial resources for decommissioning of nuclear facilities and further waste utilization. By these actions, the European Commission prompts the member states to get more involved into regulation of nuclear decommissioning financing thus preventing shortages requiring the state or even the EU to step in. Being far from a closed issue, the situation in decommissioning financing in the EU is gradually improving. Ultimately, the extensive decommissioning volumes coupled with available financing is making Europe a very attractive decommissioning market with a potential to overtake the global leadership in nuclear decommissioning.

In a large number of published works possibilities and limits of building an electricity power industry based on new renewable energy sources (NRESs) in the European countries have been analyzed in detail. As a rule, these works focus on technological aspects of building a principally new energy system, which pave the green road for NRESs penetration. The present article concentrates on economic factors and constrains in transition towards fully decarbonized electricity. Our input in the literature is the following. Firstly, we show that intensive restructuring of electricity sector in the EU is unfolding against the background of stagnation and even slight decline of demand for electricity. Sluggish dynamics of the European economy for the two last decades, additionally accentuated by the exogenous shock of global coronavirus infection, put in question possibility of substantial growth of demand or electricity in the medium- and long-term perspective. Secondly, the price of transition is rising electricity tariffs for households and companies from the real sector. Econometric calculations prove that electricity price is directly proportional to the share of NRESs in the total electricity generation and to the level of tax on carbon emissions. Thirdly, two groups of countries have crystallized in the EU that aim at realization of two different strategies of electricity decarbonization. While countries with high per capita GDP and long market history mostly place a bet on NRESs promotion, countries of comparatively low level of development and limited capacities for economic maneuver try to decarbonize electricity by promoting nuclear energy and it objectively bounds NRESs penetration.

Pandemia COVID-19 has increased the budget deficits and public debts of the US and EU countries to a record, with the impossibility of their traditional reduction without economic and social problems. The purpose of this study is to systematize tactical budget solutions to prevent a decline in GDP and a sovereign debt crisis, not structural ones. The research methodology is a comparative analysis of the main budget documents of the United States, the European Union, Germany, Canada, as well as the publications on the budgetary policy of the IMF and OECD. The results are systematized as follows: (1) declarative budget balance in the medium term and postponing real deals; (2) PR of small development expenditures and their comparison over 5-10 years with huge annual budget deficits; (3) emphasis on net and public government debt, net of reserves and debt to central banks; (4) shifting part of the sovereign debt to state owned corporations and off-budget funds; (5) accelerating inflation and maintaining low rates on government bonds, inflation stimuli of GDP and tax revenues; (6) freeze in growth or slow indexation of budget expenditures against the backdrop of a surge in inflation. Thus, systematized budget decisions to manipulate the main budget indicators will give a delay of several years for the elaboration and start of implementation of structural reforms, which have yet to be detailed.

The article examines the regulatory framework for regulating the use of distributed ledgers (blockchain) in the system of labor relations in the world and in Russia. Digitalization in general and the introduction of blockchain are changing social relations in various aspects of their manifestation. Labor relations is an area that has always been highly regulated, due to the significant opportunism of the participants, and is also subject to change. The accumulation of changes should sooner or later lead to the adaptation of the normative regulation of the labor relations system. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to investigate the impact of the use of blockchain in the system of labor relations on the content and structure of labor law, to highlight opportunities and threats, to propose options for normative regulation of the use of distributed ledgers in the world of work.
As the result of the study, gaps in labor law have been highlighted that do not allow using the blockchain to the fullest. It is proposed to supplement the Labor Code of the Russian Federation with a section that regulates the use of digital technologies in the regulation of labor relations. The key conclusion presented in the work is that the positive impact of blockchain on labor relations is minimized due to the lack of a formed legal framework in this area.

The implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement introduces a significant impact on enhancing trade flows between countries. Five years have passed since Russia ratified this Agreement. The goal of this study is to assess the implementation process of trade facilitation in the Russian Federation and to identify the main challenges and prospects in this area of the Russian foreign trade policy today. The paper firstly discusses various research approaches on the role of trade facilitation measures in the economic development of countries. The authors then conduct a qualitative analysis of the data on the implementation of measures in Russia and provide quantitative estimates for some categories of trade facilitation measures.
The literature review demonstrates that trade facilitation leads to lower transaction and trade costs, but it is also associated with certain costs of changing the regulatory framework and infrastructure. In the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement from the perspectives of many categories, Russia has today achieved impressive results in comparison with the world practice. However, firstly, the Russian Federation should pay attention not only to the mandatory measures of the Agreement, but also to those measures, which are advisory and are not included in the Agreement. Those measures substantially contribute to the trade under the modern conditions of trade cooperation and digitalization of economies. Secondly, the authors present recommendations for the development of trade facilitation measures, which today require a special approach and the implementation of which will significantly simplify export-import operations. Finally, Russia needs to conduct continuous comprehensive monitoring of all applied trade facilitation measures in order to achieve their greater effectiveness.

The subject of the article is the relationship between the structure of claims to the conduct of elections and the level of democracy in various countries of the world. It is stated that the countries that have begun to hold elections relatively recently show complaints in all areas, but primarily in the area of politics and law. On the contrary, the claims against the countries with long-standing democratic traditions are of a point nature and relate mainly to financing and the introduction of digital technologies. The specificity of the relationship between the structure of claims to elections and the level of democracy in different regions is also revealed. In Europe, this relationship is quite complex; the claims to less democratic countries are primarily related to the legal framework and the electoral system; the ones to more democratic ones are in the field of financing. In the post-Soviet space, the main differences between democratic and authoritarian countries lie in the organization of elections and campaigning, while the leading predictors of these differences are the quality of functioning of the state apparatus and political culture, which indicates the special role of the ‘administrative resource’ in the electoral process. In Latin America, like in Europe, the level of democracy is reflected primarily in the ratio of the “political” and “technical” sides of the electoral process, the relationship of which with the structure of claims to elections concerns mainly political participation and political culture, conditioned by the degree of maturity of civil society. Finally, in Africa, less democratic countries still face the challenge of securing and preventing unrest on the election day and immediately after the elections.

The article treats expropriation as the main political risk for international business, which was scientifically conceptualized following the decolonization period and marked by the shift in development strategies of the third world countries. With the end of the third wave of democratization, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the active liberalization of new markets, research interest in political risks, including threats of expropriation of foreign capital, weakened, giving way to mainly economic indicators of the investment climate. In recent years, however, with the increasing geopolitical turbulence and escalating trade and diplomatic conflicts, political factors are being brought into the foreground of country risk profiles.
In line with the expert discussions on the return of political risk, this article addresses the issue of the relevance of expropriation threats and reveals their modern nature. It focuses on the development of implicit mechanisms of state dispossessions and their current geographical distribution, which is no longer limited by the emerging markets. Based on the analysis of international arbitration cases, the article proves the modern relevancy and importance of both direct and creeping expropriations. It also stresses the necessity of the adaptation of political risk analysis methodology in accordance with the recent evolution of government takings, marked by the modification of its sources and fundamental political motivations. At the same time, the conducted analysis of scientific research in Russia reveals a noticeable gap in this direction and emphasizes this urgent need for reconsideration of political risk theory in order to bring it in line with current nature of direct and indirect forms of expropriation.