К методологии исследования мирового развития в долгосрочной перспективе: тень прошлого или роль личности?

В современных общественных науках исследователи, как правило, воздерживаются от долгосрочных прогнозов и попыток построения «больших теорий» глобальной динамики – в центре внимания ученых находятся конкретные (и достаточно узкие) эмпирические исследования. В некоторых случаях, однако же, такие исследования могут имплицитно стать основой для формулировки обобщенного представления о мировом развитии. В настоящей статье обсуждаются два направления таких исследований, бурно развивающиеся в последнее десятилетие: исследования структурной устойчивости (постулирующие, что исторические факторы оказывают воздействие на современное политическое, экономическое и социальное развитие, даже несмотря на кажущиеся «исторические разрывы») и исследования личных характеристик политиков и бюрократов (утверждающие, что биография лиц, принимающих решения, способна повлиять на политическое развитие в не меньшей степени, чем структурные особенности общества). Выводы описываемых направлений во многом противоречат друг другу. В то же время исследовательская логика обоих подходов основана на схожих предпосылках. Оба направления используют количественные методы; выбор кейсов для исследования во многом определяется доступностью данных; в обоих случаях теоретическая основа исследований является относительно слабой; в обоих случаях избыток статей, подтверждающих выводы подходов, свидетельствует не только о потенциале исследовательских направлений, но и о проблемах стимулов в научном сообществе. В настоящей работе рассматриваются основные результаты, преимущества и недостатки обоих подходов и обсуждается их потенциал для изучения перспектив долгосрочного мирового развития.

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