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Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law

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Vol 12, No 6 (2019): Global Infrastructure in the Digital Age
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-6

Political Processes in the Changing World

6-28 5557
Abstract

The process of digital technologies development and their comprehensive integration into people’s lives influences consecutively different social processes. Mostly such an influences relieves at the present moment in the economic sphere, where digital economy gets to be one of the key priorities all over the world. Also processes of digitalization are likely to touch education, health care, law, they filter through political relations too. The article dwells upon analyzing directions for such an infiltration and mechanisms for transforming political sphere of society because of their pressure, generalizes digital practices in the political discourse. The author attempts in particular to evaluate retrospectively prerequisites and initial characteristics for involving web instruments by political actors, to define specific features of digital environment as a new domain for social and political relations, to capture process and functional characteristics for applying consecutive technologies. The specific emphasize is made on Russian experience of regulating and applying the political dimension of digital technologies, which reveals the active search by government for some national vision of digital policy both inside and outside as far as state borders are not likely to apply to the web space. Based on approaching consecutive practices the author distinguishes three meaningful planes (directions) to consider digitalization in political relations: digital democracy, which characterizes upscaling deliberative mechanisms for public policy with web communication opportunities; digital bureaucracy, which reflects advanced skills of political establishment and emerging technocratic platforms based on advanced e-government: and also digital diplomacy, which makes it possible for involving new technologies into politi cal achievements on the international and supranational arena. 

29-42 1490
Abstract

The article discusses the main provisions and ideas of the project of the international transport corridor “North - South” (ITC). The main economic benefits of this project are highlighted, as well as the problems that arise during the implementation of this ambitious transport corridor. The important aspects of the creation of the railway transport network between the participating countries of the project are considered and analyzed. Authors identify the main advantages of such a corridor for the main organizers of this transport artery. There are various factors that impede the implementation of the project: geopolitical contradictions between countries, the lack of administrative and legal unification of all documents, economic differences between the participating countries of the project, and a different approach to solving infrastructure and transport and logistics problems are intertwined here.

USA: new realities

43-70 1614
Abstract

The United States started lique fied natural gas (LNG) export in 2016 and just in two years became the world’s fourth largest exporter of LNG. There is a high probability that in the near future the U.S. will emerge as the third largest LNG exporter after Australia and Qatar. The article focuses on the factors, which ensure global competitiveness of U.S. LNG until 2030. The authors show that: first, the first wave
of American export LNG projects significantly speeded up restructuring of contract system in the world gas trade as well as suppor ted development of a more flexible mechanism of natural gas pricing; secondly, production costs of the associated natural gas in the U.S. are relatively low and it is highly probable to expect Henry hub gas price to stabilize at around 2.5 dollars per MMBTU in the long run, what gives the American gas producers potential capability to significantly improve their global competitiveness by means of production and transportation costs reduction; fourthly, new waves of U.S. LNG export will not necessa rily be linked to the Henry Hub index, but to a wide range of price indicators, inclu ding the Brent oil price. With increasing flows of globally competitive Ameri can LNG entering the market, transformation of the institutional structure, contracts system and price mecha nism that have been unfold in the world LNG trade for the last ten to fifteen years became irreversible. That creates prerequisites for rapid formation of the world LNG market as well as with a some time lag of a global gas market.

71-93 1716
Abstract

In 2018 the United States surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest world oil producer. The article focuses on the mechanisms through which the American shale revolution increasingly impacts functioning of the world oil market. The authors show that this impact is translated to the world oil market mainly through the trade and price channels. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 allowed the United States to increase rapidly supply of crude oil to the world oil market, the country’s share in the world crude oil exports reached 4,4% in 2018 and continues to rise. The U.S. share in the world petroleum products exports, on which the American oil sector places the main stake, reached 18%. In parallel with increasing oil production the U.S. considerably shrank crude oil import that forced many oil exporters to reorient to other markets. Due to high elasticity of tight oil production to the oil price increases oil from the U.S. has started to constrain the world oil price from above. According to the majority of authoritative forecasts, oil production in the U.S. will continue to increase at least until 2025. Since 2017 the tendency to the increasing expansion of supermajors into American unconventional oil sector has become noticeable, what will contribute to further strengthening of the U.S. position in the world oil market and accelerate its restructuring. 

 

Russian Experience

130-151 1181
Abstract

The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Conditions for starting the wave of pension reforms established with long-term demographic trend in periods of tension (the higher growth rates of age dependency ratio and others). The start and dynamic of the wave are determined by macroeconomic shocks arise from decreasing phase of business-cycle. The growth phase of pension reforms are followed by the period of deceleration. There is a factor that slowdowns responses to macroeconomic shocks (the decisions about pension reforms are not accepted instantly). Pension system adjusts to new conditions until further tightening. Quantitative and quality analysis of pension reforms across countries would allow to test this hypothesis. To that end an appropriate instruments have been developed: the classifier of pension reform (67 items with scoring system to estimate the depth of the changes), evaluation system for economic factors influences via sensitive to pension systems indicators and associated macroeconomic shocks. A cross-section of 24 countries generates a mix of pension reforms for the period of 1994–2019, two waves of pension reforms (1990–2008 and 2009 – present) is revealed, the hypothesis of waves nature of pension reforms is confirmed. The heart of pension systems transformations in the first way is identified. These are lowering of government pensions obligations, shifting the risks from state to population with the introduction of DCschemes. The suggestions that the implementation of second pillar is positive only for countries with well-developed financial market.  The research of second-wave of pension reforms and projection of the third way will be dealt with in the next article.

94-129 1636
Abstract

This article is devoted to studying the motives, preferences, and market entry barriers for Russian high-tech start-ups and small innovative enterprises (SIE) that took part in the “Startup Village” event held at Skolkovo Innovation Centre in May 2019. Due to limitations in neoclassical theories, corporate motivation at the micro-level cannot be accurately quantified. Thus, this work uses survey and interview methods to gather primary data directly from top representatives of participating enterprises. In total, about 100 participants were interviewed. Every respondent expressed intentions to engaged in for eign economic activity; half of them already have experience operating outside of Russia. Further, 44% intend to sell their business or intellectual property rights outright, with only 12% ready to cooperate in a join venture. Based on the analysis of the results, the corporate motives of Russian startups and SIEs going abroad is in seeking: new markets (17.3%), improved efficiency (20.0%), resources (40.0%), and strategic assets (22.7%). This is diverges significantly from the average estimates made by UNCTAD in 2005/2006, where they found motivation from foreign companies in developing and transition economies to be 51%/22%/13%/14%. Against this background, Russian innovative enterprises appear far more resource-oriented and more interested in finding strategic assets. However, they are notably less interested in acquiring new markets or efficiency gains. Additionally, the preferences in foreign partners by Russian enterprises exhi bit some variety. Many choose the CIS countries (mainly Belarus and Kazakhstan) and BRICS nations (primarily China) as desirable partners. Most also express interest in developed economies in the EU (namely Germany). Among the main barriers to establishing foreign relations is the lack of personal finances and other key resources, as well as a lack of state support in promoting Russian companies abroad. Based on the obtained results, impactful recommendations are offered to the government of the Russian Federation to strengthen the investment motivation of Russian innovative enterprises. Also, recommendations are given to advance the international cooperation of BRICS in the form of joint global value chains (GVCs) using their own innovative capability. 

Asia: Challenges and Perspectives

152-169 1326
Abstract

Under the Belt and Road Initiative, particular importance is attached to transport networks development projects, including the creation of optimal transport routes and reorientation of existing supply chains based on the interests of China. This implies the active participation of Chinese companies in investing, financing and implementing projects in the field of transport infrastructure. The article examines the impact of Chinese investment in EU transport infrastructure facilities on the volume of freight traffic between China and the EU through these facilities. Most of the real Chinese investment are directed to the development of port facilities. European airports are also of great interest to Chinese investors, however, under the influence of many factors, only a few projects are successful. China is making significant efforts to establish direct rail links with EU countries. Nevertheless, the share of this type of transport is not yet comparable with freight turnover by sea and air, and future development is limited by a number of factors. Currently, COSCO’s investment in the Greek port of Piraeus is the only example of a significant increase in cargo turnover between China and the EU through an infrastructure under control, however, some ongoing projects could potentially repeat the success of COSCO in the near future. The author concludes that the approaches of the Chinese leadership to the transport infrastructure development are varied. Failures in the implementation of separate projects and the cautious attitude of Brussels towards Chinese investments do not stop China’s planned efforts focused on the long term perspective.

170-187 3578
Abstract

The article is devoted to the research into the impact of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, conducted by international pharmaceutical companies in China, on Chinese participation in international pharmaceutical trade. Relevance of the study resides in the importance of mergers and acquisitions as instruments that are widely used in a foreign markets penetration process and that lead to the enhancement of intercorporate trade, thus significantly influencing country’s foreign trade. International pharmaceutical companies expanded their operations in Chinese market during the last two decades as a result of the market liberalization. Mergers and acquisitions, conducted by international players, have directly or indirectly led to higher growth rates of Chinese foreign trade in pharmaceutical products, to geographic diversification of pharmaceutical exports and to an increase in deliveries from developed countries. China more than doubled its share in global exports of pharmaceutical products and almost quadrupled its share as an importer of pharmaceuticals. The specific features of Chinese pharmaceutical trade are high growth rates in imports and imports’ significant excess over exports. Substantial proportion of Chinese imports is constituent by pharmaceutical components, that are needed to ensure production of high quality pharmaceuticals in China. Mergers and acquisitions play important role in this process and cause changes in geographical structure of imports. Seven biggest suppling countries, which hold more than two thirds of imports to China, represent the countries of origin of companies that are actively involved into mergers and acquisitions in Chinese pharmaceutical market. The research results can be used by public regulatory authorities for the elaboration of industrial development policies through stimulating or deterring foreign direct investments. Research can be of use to pharmaceutical companies in formulating competition strategies for domestic and foreign markets. 

188-202 1346
Abstract

The article discusses some of the major characteristics and trends of China’s economic expansion in the global power industry. It argues that by investing in electricity infrastructure China creates prerequisites for long-term dominance in one of the key sectors in a number of countries and regions. Deals in the power sector are mainly implemented by state-owned companies and facilitated by state-owned financial institutions. In terms of structure and geography, foreign investment in the electricity sector is dominated by traditional types of generation in developing countries. However, China has been diversifying into renewables, nuclear power and grids and entering markets of the developed countries. The creation of a special international organization (GEIDCO) should facilitate its expansion in the electricity sector abroad. It is worth noting that foreign economic expansion plays an important role in supporting China’s slowing economy amid the transformation of its growth model. It allows China to adopt advanced technologies and best management practices in developed countries while forming alternative value chains, as well as promoting its own equipment and standards (especially in ultra-high voltage power transmission) in the developing countries. However, given the impact of the trade war, increasing securitization of the Chinese foreign investments, Chinese authorities’ control over capital outflows and the rising environmental concerns in developing countries, further expansion of the Chinese capital in the global electricity industry is likely to be held back, while competition from non-Chinese electricity companies is likely to grow.

Problems of the Old World

203-219 2205
Abstract

The article deals with the impact of opposition to nuclear power on Austria’s foreign and economic policy as well as the evolution of this political driver. Beyond rejecting the use of nuclear power domestically Austria conducts active anti-nuclear foreign policy primarily towards neighboring countries running NPPs, ultimately aiming at nuclear phase out of the whole EU. As a part of this anti-nuclear policy Austria refuses to procure electricity produced by NPPs in other countries. Moreover, the opposition to nuclear power determined the clean energy transition model for Austria. The country has reached a high level of renewables share in electricity production and strives for a non-carbon energy system by 2030. The article shows that Austria has made a long way to its anti-nuclear stance, driven by social movements. Its turning point was the referendum on the use of nuclear power held in 1978, when diverse activist groups managed to overcome the pro-nuclear government supported lobby. The anti-nuclear movement continued to exert influence on the political agenda of the federal government via local communities and states authorities. With the time, their efforts have led to common acceptance of the anti-nuclear stance as an important driver of the Austrian policy.

Post-Soviet Space

220-245 2572
Abstract

The formation of common industrial markets of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the energy sector is not just a task to fulfill the terms of the Treaty on the EAEU, but a necessary condition for expanding integration interaction between partner countries, a necessary resource platform for developing competitive potential in the industrial sector of the EAEU member countries and a factor for ensuring energy security The formation of common industrial markets of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the energy sector is not just a task to fulfill the terms of the Treaty on the EAEU, but a necessary condition for expanding integration interaction between partner countries. It’s a necessary resource platform for developing competitive potential in the industrial sector of the EAEU member countries and a factor for ensuring energy security The authors examine in the article the world experience in applying various models for integrating energy markets, in particular electricity and gas, taking into account the specifics of the functioning of the sectoral national systems of the EAEU countries, their resource potential, the level of development of competition and monopolization, and the possibilities of transit of electricity and gas. The potential of creating and developing a common electricity market on the basis of the signed agreements in the EAEU was studied in the context of differences in the institutional and legal bases, the degree of development of competition in the national industrial electricity markets, and their liberalization levels. The revealed differences in the models of the national electricity markets of the EAEU countries cause a long transition period for the formation of a common market with a gradual decrease in the number of seizures in generation / production, transmission and ensuring the security of energy supply to countries. It is noted, that the coordinated model of the transition period does not contribute to the rapid obtaining of significant synergistic effects and the solution of energy redundancy problems. The need to develop a coordinated industrial policy of the EAEU countries to expand the use of resource potential and export of energy resources to third countries is noted. It requires an integrated approach to creating common markets, primarily electricity and gas. (можно дать одним предложением The need to develop a coordinated industrial policy of the EAEU countries to expand the use of resource potential and export of energy resources to third countries is noted, which requires an integrated approach to creating common markets, primarily electricity and gas., а можно оставить и так)The current level of the institutional and legal basis for the formation of the gas market does not allow to overcome the differences in the degree of liberalization of national gas markets, their monopolization and, accordingly, pricing, and determines the acceleration of integration rapprochement. The formation of common markets actualizes the format of exchange trading, the institutionalization of which on the electricity market is already provided for in the EAEU interstate agreements, and on the common gas market requires coordination and implementation of electronic trading mechanisms, drawing on Russian experience.

National Peculiarities

246-267 9559
Abstract

Complex research of the “digital economy” in the U.S.A. and China –undisputable leaders of the phenomena – appears to be an important research task. This article is focused on identifying its` key factors and developmental trends (also important for understanding global processes). Growing economic impact and dominance of the U.S.A. and China in the “digital economy”, especially on the Internet markets, is confirmed – with special attention to the extra-large platformic companies. Analyzing the history of the “digital economy” in both nations primacy of market success factors is stated – while stressing important role of technological specifics in shaping trends. For the U.S.A. the key drivers were meeting existing demand on the traditional markets with fundamentally new technological products, as well as formation of new markets to address existing latent demand. For China originally it was inability of the ser
vice sector to address growing internal demand, which supported strong growth of internet markets as a fast and cheap alternative (using localized western technologies and business models). Sizable market, governmental support, and later strong investments in technology and innovation determined China`s leadership in the digital economy– with overcoming the U.S.A. in some areas. In conclusion, it is noted that the importance of original digital economy drivers (U.S. technological superiority, China`s huge growing market, etc.) in both nations is expiring. This makes serious changes inevitable. The situation is complicated by growing challenges for the digital economy – from evolving regulatory framework to digitalization of the global economy.

268-286 1601
Abstract

The article provides an analysis of the specifics of infrastructure development in Southeast Asia (SEA), in particular the mechanism for financing public-private partnerships (PPPs), which are supported by governments throughout the region in order to bridge the gap in infrastructure development amid limited public resources. SEA countries need investment for infrastructure development in the amount of at least $150 billion a year to maintain their economic growth, which cannot be financed exclusively from public funds or by attracting foreign capital. In the region, only Singapore and Brunei have sufficient resources to finance the development of infrastructure they need entirely from the state budget. The focus is on the five countries in the region that are most actively using the PPP mechanism now and plan to actively resort to it in the near future: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The infrastructure system of these countries is considered, as well as factors that affect the effectiveness of PPP in region - both positive and negative. It is noted that PPPs in Southeast Asia are faced with all sorts of problems, primarily with inefficient state regulation and the institutional conditions for their implementation in PPP projects. For the active implementation of PPP in Southeast Asia, it seems appropriate to focus on the proposal of a small number of carefully prepared PPP projects that may have the necessary demonstration effect. In addition, it seems to us, the powers of national and local government departments dealing with PPPs should be widened.



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ISSN 2542-0240 (Print)
ISSN 2587-9324 (Online)