Structural and macroeconomic imbalances have been an inalienable  feature of the socio-economic development in the Middle East and  North Africa (MENA) since independence. Both types of  disproportions produce a negative impact upon fundamental  development trends in the region. Against this background, this  paper analyses the structure and hierarchies of imbalances in the  region of the Middle East and North Africa. The article argues that broad-range monitoring of fiscal and macroeconomic indicators  can facilitate the identification of emerging imbalances and provide  ways of overcoming them. The article contends that the natural and  climatic and resource factors quite rigidly determined the economic  profile of the region, which, in turn, predetermines the key structural  and macroeconomic imbalances that affect MENA  socio-economic development. The historical asymmetry in the  development of the MENA states, which for a long time had been parts of the British, French and Ottoman colonial empires, with their economic or strategic roles determined by the overseas rulers,  created prerequisites for the subsequent economic differentiation of  the countries of the region. Over the years of independence, the  uneven development of the initially similar agrarian-Bedouin  economies has increased dramatically as a result of the socio- economic policies carried out by the sovereign governments in  accordance with the resource capacities of each country. The authors categorise MENA countries, dividing them into five groups, depending on the nature and determinants of economic  development. The authors insist that almost all the current social  and economic problems of the region are related to its two  fundamental specific characteristics: colossal rental incomes (mainly  of oil and gas origin) and relative overpopulation. The article exposes main macroeconomic imbalances MENA states, demonstrating the asymmetry of intra-regional development  and structural distortions of the economic and demographic nature. On the basis of complex fiscal and macroeconomic data analysis the  authors identify the existing imbalances. The paper produces a  critique of existing macroeconomic stabilization policies in MENA states and their attempts to overcome the existing imbalances. I.  Abramova and L. Fituni provide an augmented assessment of the  typical policy failures in MENA. The research results in a forecast of  the dynamics of financial determinants of macroeconomic stability in the region and the authors’ vision of ways to overcome or limit the  existing and imminent imbalances. The authors come to the  conclusions that that MENA countries need to accelerate structural reforms in order to overcome imbalances and to achieve  diversification of their economies. Expanding the opportunities for  the national private sector and increasing its importance in the non- oil segment of the economy could help to alleviate the employment  situation and increase the effective consumer demand.

This paper examines the impact of co-operation between Turkey and  the US upon Turkish trade and investments towards the Black Sea  region. The study is particularly important in the conjuncture of the  US withdrawal from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and in the wake of signing a free  trade agreement with the EU. An additional matter of importance  relates to the improved Turkey – Russia economic collaboration especially after the “jet” incident and American  involvement with the Middle East. Significant part of the latter is  economic as the US has also explicit economic interests in the  Eastern Meditteranean. A gravity model has been employed using  ordinary least squares on a panel data with fixed effects to analyse aggregate trade. We have also categorized export groups of  Turkey and the US separately. Our findings for both Turkish and the US exports indicate that per-capita GDP of Black Sea countries are  highly persistent and positively correlated with increased efficiency  gains and trade volumes. Regression results show that the US  exports to the EU member countries are on average less than to  those non-EU member Black Sea countries. Hence, we question  whether a possible co-operation between the US and Turkish  companies can help gaining better access to the Black Sea market for their exports.

Currently, capitalist development of countries is closely connected  with unequal income distribution both among different segments of  the population and among countries. This tendency is clearly seen in  the economies of Arab countries, among which there are countries  from the top 10 of the richest countries, and countries set back in  their economic development by decades because of world power  interference in their sovereignty. Thus obtained new economic order shows the formation of new, unequal relations between  different countries of Arab world where partnership relations are  offset by arisen systemic crisis. The article considers such social and  economic processes taking place in Arab countries as migration  flows, macroeconomic consequences of decline in the world price of  hydrocarbons, cash outflow from Arab oil-exporting countries. In  addition, in the article are given main financial indicators of major  Arab banks working with Islamic finances, indicators (in dynamics)  of the oil sector, consequences of avoidance from commodity  dependence by economic diversification in the GCC, the problems of  liquidity not peculiar to Islamic financial institutions but to the  economies of Middle Eastern countries are analyzed. Based on the information given in the article, it is worth noting that in the  context of globalization and external economic processes, Islamic  finances represent cash flow of Islamic countries whose essence  does not carry their original purpose. 

After the after cancellation of the anti-Iranian sanctions by the  international community on 15 July 2015 in Iran the new stage of development has begun.. In 2013, for the post of President of the  Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was elected Hassan Rouhani. Essence  launched under the slogan “economy of resistance” of the new  economic policy of the IRI is to make full use of internal reserves of  growth to intensive development of the real sector of the economy, national production, focusing on knowledgeintensive sectors and industries for deep processing of  hydrocarbons and other natural raw materials export orientation.  Thus, the policy of “resistance economy” aimed at creating in Iran independent of foreign supplies industries. To the fore in Iran,  leaves a large-scale project activity designed to implement the  principle of “constructive engagement”. Implemented and planned in Iran’s strategic projects are meant for the Iranian leadership in the region and the world. As has shown the conducted research,  paramount value in modern conditions is gained by factors of  continuity and deepening of trust, increase in level of the relations  with neighbors that can be provided with means of joint participation in implementation of status Euroasian technological, infrastructure
and trade projects. Such interaction may include, for example, joint  participation in projects of the Great Silk Road, the formation of a  belt of security and of dialogue in greater Eurasia, cooperation in the framework of the SCO, the EEU and other international  organizations. Iran certainly has kept commitment to logic of implementation of the Pax Umma Islamica project, originally – in  Southwest Asia, under its leadership. All foreign policy activity of IRI  in the foreseeable future, including forming of new system of  regional stability in the Middle East and the international cooperation will be subordinated to achievement of this purpose, finally. Tehran,  as one might expect, will return to the traditional Iranian policy of  balancing, this time between China and the United States. Therefore, the possible inclusion of Iran in the alternative projects of  the Great Silk Road (South Korea – Northern Europe – South Africa).

Social and political processes in Syria and Lebanon analyzes on the  material of archival documents through the prism of global and  regional ideological confrontation. On the background of the world  bipolar system in the first half of the 1960s the most powerful  ideological currents, combining Arab nationalism and socialist ideas,  were most clearly manifested in the Middle East. On a broader scale,  these ideological currents have found their short-term  expression within the framework of the Non-Aligned Movement. By the end of the 1960s, the ideas of Arab socialism had ceased to be perceived as competitive in a system of bipolar global  confrontation. Nevertheless, the important historical processes of the  early 1960s cannot be analyzed without taking into account that  powerful factor in the Middle East development.

The impact of globalization, the emergence of transnational actors and the destruction of the states by internal conflicts and/or foreign interference have contributed to the weakening of their sovereignty. In the Middle East, states often face serious constraints on the part of regional and global powers. Their sovereignty is also being eroded under the pressure of numerous non-state actors. External forces (individual states and international organizations) have over the decades formed with varying degrees of success the political face of the Middle East with directly impacting on the structure of regional international relations. This influence was ambiguous. Despite the injustice of the colonial policy, and arbitrarily drawn borders, the partition of the Ottoman legacy was a step towards modernisation of traditional societies, the emergence of modern Middle Eastern States, which, however, were in genetic dependence on external  players. The absence of great powers, able to form new regional  system, was the result of a colonial policy and at the same time a  factor in the preservation of the special role of external players in  the Middle East. The problem of external intervention was closely  connected with the attempt of new reading of the concept of  sovereignty. This was preceded by the collapse of the bipolar system, which gave birth to the idea that all major threats to  the world were eliminated. Interventions in the form of humanitarian intervention and R2P in Iraq and Libya led to the collapse of the  former political system due to the lack of institutions, and  contributed to the strengthening of non-system players, including terrorist groups.

The article is an attempt to predict the main trends of the political, cultural and ideological development of the Middle East in the  medium and long term, taking into account the impact of  international terrorism. To provide optimal solutions possible the  author identifies a number of core components. Basing this selection  he offers his vision of the likely behaviour of key state and non-state  actors as well as the forthcoming fate of the objects of their attention. In preparing the scenarios, the main methods of  predictive analytics were used: statistical analysis, intellectual  analysis of data, analysis of patterns and models conducted within  the framework of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research project  “The Phenomenon of the Islamic State” in the context of the development of a modern Eastern society. “The article is based  on an interpretation of the main conclusions and results of using those methods and methodologies. The article asserts that the recent growth of radical Islam in the East and political populism  in the West are close root causes. Despite all the differences in the  rhetoric and the outward forms, they represent a defensive response  on the part of those segments of Eastern and  Western societies that have failed to adjust to rigid paradigms of  globalization. Intra- and inter-confessional conflicts may become the  prevailing form of military threats in the region, beginning around  the 2020s. Their heralds are already visible in conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and, to a lesser extent, in Lebanon, Bahrain and on the east  coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Interstate Shiite-Sunni contradictions have so far been limited by political-ideological  confrontation and diplomatic demarches, sometimes accompanied by various embargoes, such as the recent Qatar crisis. Even the physical destruction of the selfproclaimed Islamic pseudo-state in MENA will take some time. Under favorable circumstances, ISIS units may be squeezed out of the important settlements of Syria and Iraq  within a year. This will not mean the end of ISIS. The experience of  the war with terrorist groups in Libya, Algeria, West Africa, Somalia,  Afghanistan, and Southeast Asia shows that even when driven out  into the desert or sparsely populated areas, fragmented but linked  groups of terrorists continue for quite some time to inflict harassing attacks on government forces and objects, to make long  sorties and to arrange spectacular acts of terrorism. Most likely, the  forces interested in maintaining the problems of international terrorism high on the agenda will not sit idly by but will  undertake spectacular and noteworthy actions to keep terrorism  issues in the limelight. As a result, the intensity of terrorist attacks in  the West may increase, since even limited terrorist attacks in  Europe cause more media coverage in the world media than any acts of terrorism in the Middle East. To achieve these goals, new channels and forms of imple mentation of terrorist attacks will  be used, such as terrorist acts involving children, ordinary means of  transport, during the course of mass and symbolic political events, elections, etc.

The U.S.-Israel relationship has never existed in a vacuum; it has always been part of a broader regional strategy. Israel hoped the  45th president of the United States has ostensibly ended an eight- year deterioration of the U.S.-Israel relationship. He committed  himself to pro-Israeli positions, which was welcomed in Jerusalem.  However, Trump’s precise policy vis-à-vis Israel is likewise difficult to  define. He made problematic statements regarding the issue of  foreign aid to US allies, and declared that he would be neutral  regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel is still facing more questions than answers. Some are rooted in the uncertainty relating to the new US administration and the  implications of that change for Israel’s strategic environment, but  many are linked to the Israeli penchant for avoiding decisions that it  must make for itself. In the international arena, it is important to rebuild Israel’s status by relying not only on the Trump administration. Some Israeli politicians believe that Trump’s  unquestioning support means trouble for Israel. The Trumportunity is by no means a guarantee. The opportunity here is just that, an opportunity.

This article looks at the structure and the dynamics of the Middle  Eastern crisis set in motion by the events of the Arab Spring. At the  heart of the crisis was Syria, where antigovernment protests broke  out in early 2011, almost in parallel with other countries also  affected by the Arab Spring. Starting from late March 2011, the  unrest morphed into a civil war, leading to a large-scale crisis  engulfing the country by the end of the year. At first, the opposition  to the Syrian regime consisted of numerous groups with varying  political affiliations – from liberals to Islamists – however, by early  2012, radical Islamism came to dominate the opposition forces. And  by the end of the same year, the opposition was spearheaded by an  openly terrorist organization – the al-Nusra Front, an outgrowth of the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Over the same period, regional  and international forces were becoming more and more involved in the Syrian crisis. Since 2012, in parallel with the Syrian crisis, there  has been another internal conflict raging in the Middle East, namely  in Iraq, with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) taking  the foreground and combining groups of Iraqi al-Qaeda militants  with Baathist underground forces. In 2014–2015, ISIL took hold of  large swaths of territory in Syria and Iraq, effectively turning the  Syrian civil war into a regional conflict. In addition to Syria and Iraq, the ongoing crisis has involved – either directly or indirectly – such actors as Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and a number of  other regional powers. Turkey has been indirectly involved in the  Syrian crisis since its very beginning, but starting from 2016 its  engagement in the conflict has become much more active – not only  in Syria, but also in Iraq. In 2013, Iran started to interfere in the  Syrian crisis directly, using its Shia allies, and expanded its presence onto Iraq in 2014. Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s participation in the  Syrian conflict has been indirect, mainly through military and  financial assistance provided to their clients inside the country. However, Saudi Arabia’s activities in Syria have started to decline in  2015, due to its military involvement in Yemen, which – in a broader  context – can be perceived as a peripheral component of  the large regional conflict. In addition to the above mentioned  components, one could also name a number of other equally important factors to the crisis. One of them is that the ranks of al- Nusra and ISIL militants have been reinforced not only by people  coming from the Arab countries, but also from the citizens of  Western Europe, North America and the former USSR. Another factor  has been the growing role of Kurdish groups in the  confrontation with the terrorists, especially with ISIL. This has led to  the creation of a Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. At the same  time, an armed confrontation began in Turkish Kurdistan, which  Turkey views as a threat to its territorial integrity. The Syrian crisis has also been marked by involvement of global powers, such as the  US and Russia. The US-led international coalition has not succeeded  in changing the course of the conflict – on the other hand, Russia’s involvement since the second half of 2015 has made a significant  difference. With the end of the campaign against ISIL already in  view, and with the prospects for a successful intra- Syrian  settlement, it would seem reasonable to raise the question of the  post-conflict configuration of the region, which is discussed at the  end of the article.

The article deals with the peculiarities of the transformation of  Turkey in the sphere of internal and foreign policy in the light of the  referendum held on April 16, 2017 on the issue of the extension of  powers of the head of state. The preconditions and consequences of  the transition of Turkey from a parliamentary political system to a presidential one are analyzed, as well as the problem of stability of  the internal political situation in the republic in the conditions of the economic crisis, the unresolved Kurdish problem, the increase  of terrorist threat. In the article the changes in the positioning of Turkey in the international arena appeared after the referendum,  in particular in the relations with the European Union which Turkey  has tried to join for a long time are revealed. Special attention is  paid to the international and political activity of Turkey in the Middle East region and in the Syrian conflict zone where the military  confrontation sparked the activation of radical Islamist movements  and terrorist structures. The evolution of the Turkish approaches to the crisis in Syria is analyzed, the role of Turkey which with Russia  and Iran has become a guarantor of peaceful settlement  within the framework of Astana process is estimated. Based on the  analysis of the peculiarities of the transformation of Turkey as a  regional power a conclusion is made about the postreferendum continuity of the political course in the sphere of internal and foreign policy and that within the framework of the  presidential political system developing in the republic one can  expect greater dynamics in the adoption of economic, political and  international solutions.

The political regime of the Republic of Turkey created by Ataturk  have always combines two mutually exclusive principles of Islam and  western democracy. Fro a long period of time in its foreign  policy Ankara has been foolowing the west-oriented vector. Since  1952 Turkey has been the member of NATO and at the end of the  20th century made a strong application to become the member of the European Union. At the beginning of the 21st century pro- Western politics began to enter an increasingly obvious impasse.  Tukrey didn’t want to continue being a U.S. agent in the Middle East. However an attempt to play an active role in the region  led Turkey to almost complete international isolation. The  country was not ready a complete break in relations with influential Western allies. The loss of the status of an American agent would inevitably lead to a reduction of Turkey’s military-technical capabilities, and,  consequently, of the political influence that it was achieved in  cooperation with its Western patrons. The author comes to the  concludes that modern Turkey resembles a power which has not  determined its foreign policy priorities. It continues to pursue a  sufficiently risky policy of maneuvering between regional and global players.