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Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law

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Vol 17, No 5 (2024)
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Political Theory

6-26 121
Abstract

Drawing on the case studies of Russia, India, and China, this article seeks to examine the interplay between revolution and foreign policy. The author posits that revolution, as both a phenomenon and a process, aims to modernize national economies while augmenting a nation’s influence within the international system. For Russia, the February and October Revolutions marked its transition from the ‘periphery’ of the global system to a significant force in international affairs. Similarly, India and China pursued world power status along their own distinct trajectories. Nevertheless, the shared objective for these major nations – the “Elephant” and the “Dragon” – was to enhance their geopolitical standing in global politics, thereby ensuring the effective protection of their national interests. The article also underscores the importance of the ‘demonstration effect’ of the foreign policy revolution in Russia, India, and China, which inspired the political ‘awakening of the oppressed,’ representing the majority of humankind. This awakening is characterized by a growing assertion of political agency and the active defense of the ideas and principles underpinning a new, polycentric world order

27-43 101
Abstract

The aim of this work is to define fundamentally new, substantive answers to traditional questions that have challenged scientists for centuries within the context of contemporary digital transformations. The central research question focuses on the fundamental reinterpretation of “old” questions in a changed world. The paper explores W.R. Ashby’s law of requisite variety, the concept of the Panopticon by J. Bentham and M. Foucault, and Plato’s allegory of the cave, assessing their relevance and applicability to contemporary conditions of state and societal functioning in a new technological stage of digital development. This study demonstrates that digital technological transformations fail to generate fundamentally novel substantive frameworks for interpreting the processes occurring in critical spheres of state and societal dynamics. Instead, the enduring relevance of established classical theories, conceptual paradigms, systemic laws governing state administration, and foundational principles of interaction between the state and society remain evident. Traditional ideas about mass consciousness – its role in shaping behavioral patterns and the information and communication foundation for constructing worldviews and mass perceptions of reality – do not undergo fundamental changes within the context of digitalization. Rather, they align seamlessly with existing traditional concepts and approaches. The results of the study indicate that the substantive aspects of digital solutions to “old” questions largely correspond to existing traditional answers and solutions, which retain a high explanatory potential even in the contemporary era.

From the Point of Economics

44-60 87
Abstract

The article analyzes the risks accompanying the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and identifies the main areas of its application. AI technologies are currently actively used in many areas of human activity, and they are instrumental in determining the direction of the modern world economy. Historical analogies related to AI risks, which have inevitably arisen during various stages of scientific and technological development as certain innovative solutions were introduced, are considered. The issues of job reductions and rising unemployment, both of which are relevant and socially significant, have garnered substantial academic attention. The uncontrolled escalation of these phenomena could undermine social stability and exacerbate societal stratification, resulting from declining incomes among the least qualified employees alongside the enrichment of more dynamic and skilled individuals. To mitigate these consequences, the role of government agencies in the large-scale use of AI should not only remain significant but also increase considerably. As digitalization processes may eventually be dominated by a small number of large companies and governments, these dynamics could exacerbate inequality and limit the variety of use cases for AI systems. It should be noted that multinational corporations (MNCs), and especially the GAFA group (Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon), are successfully transforming the consciousness of the masses in directions that serve their interests, actively using AI to shape and manipulate mass consciousness. Considering that the problems posed are synthetic in nature, there is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research to identify the risks associated with using AI at the state and corporate levels and to adopt measures aimed at minimizing them.

Political Processes in the Changing World

61-81 119
Abstract

Currently, the global system finds itself in a profound crisis, one that necessitates a fundamental reconfiguration and the establishment of a new world order as the only viable path forward. However, the journey toward this emerging order is protracted, arduous, marked by intense conflicts, and remains uncertain in many respects. Simultaneously, competition is escalating across various domains, including the contestation over principles governing coexistence and development. The article analyzes how the transformation processes of the world system can ultimately lead to the destruction of the existing American- led world order and the formation of a new world order based on alternative principles. The article considers the dynamics of such changes over the past decades through comparisons between Western nations and the BRICS countries, including graphical representations. It analyzes the growing role of the BRICS+ association in the formation of a new world order, which is undoubtedly an alternative to and a counterbalance to the United States and the collective Western bloc of nations. The article offers forecasts on some possible contours and principles of the world order. The growing role of new forms of relationships and alliances in the formation of a new world order is emphasized. In particular, it analyzes the potential contributions of BRICS+ to the world community, along with the aspects and directions that can become a model for shaping important principles and mechanisms central to a new world order.

82-102 109
Abstract

The article examines the prospects of Latin American states joining BRICS in its possible next enlargement. It explores the reasons why Russia, China, and Brazil (acting as a regional leader in Latin America) may be interested in Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia, Cuba, and Nicaragua joining the grouping. The main political and economic prerequisites for the admission of the aforementioned states to BRICS are identified. The political criteria set by the BRICS “core” member states for accession candidates are outlined. The discussion among the member countries regarding the legal formalization and conceptualization of the new status of interaction with the grouping, referred to as a “BRICS partner country,” is examined. It is concluded that Bolivia’s potential inclusion in the grouping seems to be the most favorable for both China and Russia due to the large number of joint projects related to economic and energy development. In turn, Brazil’s initiative to support Colombia’s candidacy may be met with a positive response from China, which seeks to consistently expand its influence in Latin America. At the same time, despite the great economic potential of Venezuela and the geostrategic importance of Cuba, the inclusion of these countries in the enlarged BRICS is still difficult due to the fact that some members of the grouping seek to avoid weakening it through the inclusion of economically and politically unstable states. Some candidates do not aspire to join BRICS as full members: the authorities of Nicaragua have declared their desire to obtain the status of a BRICS partner country, while the leadership of Honduras has announced plans to join the New Development Bank.

103-122 171
Abstract

The article is based on a study of the ‘thematic portfolios’ of five BRICS summit declarations from 2019 to 2023 – adopted in Brasília, Moscow, New Delhi, Beijing, and Johannesburg. A combination of quantitative and qualitative sentiment analysis enables the authors to identify common values that correspond to the so-called “BRICS spirit,” as well as country-specific interests. An analysis of the summit declarations reveals that the tone is predominantly neutral-to-positive across all agendas. Concurrently, the stances of the BRICS member countries on pivotal matters pertaining to global economic governance, security, science, and education are notably aligned. A qualitative content analysis of each declaration substantiates the assertion that each host country incorporates its own priority objectives into the final declaration, thereby conferring greater weight and visibility on the global stage. Consequently, there is a gradual expansion of the common agenda of BRICS. Special attention is paid to the African agenda in the declarations of the BRICS summits. Towards the end of the article, the specifics of the Kazan Declaration of 2024, which marked the beginning of a new stage in the development of BRICS, particularly with regard to the expansion of the association and the inclusion of new members, are briefly considered.

Politics and Law

123-149 95
Abstract

This article examines the current state of strategic offensive arms control since the onset of the Biden administration, analyzing the causes and implications of the suspension of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (the New START Treaty). This analysis is undertaken within the broader context of Russian-American relations and global security. Despite the growing number of recent publications and statements asserting the purported obsolescence of traditional arms control frameworks, the findings of this study highlight the enduring significance of arms control, particularly in the critical domain of strategic offensive weapons. The article provides a comparative analysis of Russian and American positions on key aspects of strategic arms limitation. Official Russian statements emphasize that progress in this sphere is contingent on mutual de-escalation, specifically requiring the United States to abandon its antagonistic stance toward Russia. The article also assesses prospects for future dialogue in this area are also assessed, with particular consideration given to the implications of the United States’ electoral cycle. While discussions of a perspectives of second term for Donald Trump have been linked to possible shifts in U.S.-Russia relations, the likelihood of substantive progress in arms control remains uncertain. Nevertheless, without meaningful advancements in limiting strategic arms, the collapse of the legal and treaty-based framework governing arms control appears imminent, significantly heightening the risks of military confrontations, including those involving nuclear weapons

150-171 82
Abstract

In recent years, following the consistent logic of the three main political ideas of the country – the individual, society, and the state – Russia has begun to conduct research on the future political path of the country’s development under the influence of three main factors: feelings of separation, feelings of alienation, and concerns about security. This adjustment of direction can be summarized as a strategy of the «recentralization of power.» This strategy includes at least two parts: the recentralization of political power and the recentralization of political action, both of which cover international and domestic politics. The recentralization of political power means that the emphasis is no longer on decentralization and empowerment, but instead on centralized power and strict rules. The recentralization of political action means that the emphasis is no longer on competition and negotiation, but on common goals and unified actions. From the point of view of international politics, the recentralization of actions is mainly reflected in the evolution of the dynamics among great powers towards major power confrontations and the evolution of regional cooperation towards major power leadership. From the perspective of domestic policy, the recentralization of actions is predominantly reflected in the consolidation of decision-making processes and the synchronization of developmental progress, coupled with an intensification of political measures. The strategy of the «recentralization of power» signifies Russia’s profound adjustments to its systemic framework and policy implementation. These adjustments should not be perceived merely as short-term or temporary initiatives; rather, they must be interpreted at a higher level, within a broader historical and contextual framework, grounded in a deeper strate gic logic and shaped by the developmental experience of Russian leadership over the past three decades. The article provides a brief summary, as well as a vision of the future path of political development. The implementation of this strategy signifies not only that Russia has begun to reflect on its political history over the past century, but also that Russian politics has entered a new cycle.

Africa and the Middle East: the Сhanging Landscape

172-186 84
Abstract

The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 profoundly undermined the country’s statehood. During the planning of the “Operation Iraqi Freedom,” the United States relied on Shiites and Kurds, who were perceived as having been the most marginalized under the Baath Party’s rule. Simultaneously, the new administration implemented a ban on the Baath Party, resulting in the political marginalization of Sunnis and their exclusion from public life. This approach exacerbated the existing ethnic and sectarian divisions within Iraqi society. A lack of understanding of Iraq’s social complexities and challenges by the interim American administration ultimately contributed to the outbreak of civil war. The country’s economy was left in ruins, and following the involvement of ISIS terrorists in the conflict, a significant portion of the population – particularly Sunnis and Christians – was forced to seek refuge abroad.

187-198 136
Abstract

This article examines the multifaceted factors that have contributed to the Syrian conflict and its prolonged duration. Foremost among these is the active support provided by external actors to the Syrian radical Islamist opposition. The study employs the principles of historicism, scientific objectivity, and authenticity as its methodological framework. It explores the regional dynamics that emerged following the 2023 restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China’s mediation. This reconciliation played a pivotal role in improving relations between Arab countries – particularly Saudi Arabia and Syria – and reinstating Syria as a competent member of the League of Arab States. The article also analyzes the evolution of the military and political situation in the region after the onset of the conflict involving Israel, HAMAS, and Hizballah. Furthermore, it examines the escalating tensions between Syria and pro-Iranian forces stationed in the country and Israel following the outbreak of hostilities in Gaza. Additionally, the study evaluates the actions of groups that, with external support, led to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s leadership during November– December 2024

The Pages of the Past

199-214 98
Abstract

Health crises, particularly in the form of pandemics, have a long history of destroying and disrupting the political, social, and economic order of organized human societies. There is a continuous endeavor to derive lessons from these historical events to better comprehend, prepare for, and mitigate the impacts of future pandemics. This review article, adopting the perspectives of crisis management and crisis communication, seeks to operationalize historical human experiences in the realm of policy-making. By engaging with both academic and popular literature on past pandemic events, the article endeavors to apply these insights to the COVID-19 pandemic while the crisis was still unfolding. The findings indicate that the most pertinent lessons from past health crises are often not accurately learned or applied, potentially due to political pressures that emerge during such crises.

215-228 87
Abstract

The article examines the history of the Soviet Spetskhran as an institution that embodied the systemic features of the Soviet civilization: closeness, secrecy, ideological control, and bureaucratization. The study traces the evolution of this institution, which was part of an elaborated system of censorship and an instrument for the limited distribution of information. The formation of the Soviet institution of Spetskhran began immediately after the revolution of 1917, and by the end of the 1930s, it had taken its final form. The end of the Stalinist era marked a new period characterized by abandonment of the practice of mass purges of libraries and the gradual expansion of the availability of collections. The article explores the specifics of the selection of literature for Spetskhran in libraries and the conditions for readers to gain access to them. The disappearance of the Communist Party’s ideological control and the abolition of censorship led to the liquidation of the Spetskhran institution.



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ISSN 2542-0240 (Print)
ISSN 2587-9324 (Online)