Preview

Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law

Advanced search
Vol 13, No 6 (2020): Foreign Capital in the Economy and World Politics
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)

From the Point of Economics

6-29 1385
Abstract

Historically, foreign capital has played a significantly larger role in the functioning of African economies than in other large developing regions. The past 20 years have been a period of rapid economic growth in Africa, accompanied by a dynamic growth in the continent’s investment attractiveness.

The purpose of the article is to provide a political and economic analysis and assessment of the impact of foreign capital on the development of African countries, primarily from the point of view of achieving a difficult balance in their state policy between the interests of overcoming backwardness and ensuring economic growth, on the one hand, and overcoming the rudiments of economic dependence that have persisted since colonial times, on the other. The main attention is paid to the current stage of competition between American, Chinese and European capital in Africa For about thirty years, African countries have been pursuing a policy of encouraging the inflow of private direct investment, which, according to the leadership of these states, should contribute to sustainable growth and diversification of local economies. To a certain extent, these hopes were justified. Average annual GDP growth rates of the continent’s countries in the 21st century turned out to be the highest over long time periods for the entire period of independent development. In addition, there are certain achievements in the field of diversification of African economies and modernization of production facilities, including even the creation of separate facilities and technological production facilities (in South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania). that meet the requirements of the 4th industrial revolution.

The negative shifts in the global investment climate stemming from the total sanctions and trade war unleashed by the West seriously complicate the conditions for the development of African countries. Objectively, they lead to a narrowing of the possibilities for attracting foreign capital to their economies and deriving structural advantages from the free use of FDI in their own interests.

Prospects for improving the situation, it seems, for African countries today depend more on the possibilities of improving the global situation than on the efforts of national governments to create legal and economic conditions in the domestic capital markets. Otherwise, the decisive factors determining the volume and direction of the inflow of foreign capital to Africa will increasingly be the geopolitical decisions of large external players.

The author concludes that at the same time, it is likely that in the medium-and long - term perspective, African countries will not only remain attractive but uneasy market for foreign capital to operate, but will gradually bypass many of the modern investment priority countries and regions in Europe, Asia and Latin America in terms of attractiveness.

30-50 1132
Abstract

The vulnerability of global value chains (GVCs) to sudden shocks generated by the COVID-19 pandemic carries risks of destabilization of national economies. Limited studies on this issue give space to debatable assessments (also in Russia) of the expediency of countries’ participation in GVCs. Since various aspects of such participation have already been widely considered in the Russian literature, we focus on another aspect of the topic — possible strategies of international business (leading MNEs) for enhancing GVC resilience under high uncertainty. The initial section provides background definitions related to the GVC concept, including the treatment of resilience (as the ability of systems to respond flexibly to shocks and adapt to a changed environment through internal restructuring). Then we formulate advantages of the modern distributed model of production and trade in value-added through GVCs, as well as display a typical design of a manufacturing GVC and its global supplier network. Further, we consider stages in the GVCs’ expansion and describe the distributed model vulnerabilities before and during the COVID-19 crisis. On this basis, we systematize strategies of leading MNEs, outlined in 2020, for enhancingGVC resilience in the post-crisis period, with highlighting two directions in MNEs’ activities — 1) restructuring and diversification of supplier networks and 2) optimization of production control through applying digital technologies. We then reveal possible impact of these strategies on GVCs’ regionalization (their transition from a globally distributed to macroregional format), and point to potential shifts in the global production landscape. Final section outlines a new phase of globalization titled reglobalization. We conclude that reconfiguration of GVCs allows developing economies, including Russia, to improve their position in the global production, provided they are ready to implement necessary structural reforms.

51-64 1816
Abstract

Multinational corporations operate beyond state borders and the need to regulate them has been made apparent by documented human rights violations, as well as environmental encroachments. This article considers two types of measures: (1) those that have been adopted by multinational corporations themselves such as Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives and (2) those developed by host states with a focus on Local Content policy measures. Going beyond the idea of regulating corporations, Local Content policy measures are designed to act as a growth multiplier by developing linkages and involving local populations in the production process to create a spillover effect on the local or national economy. The author reviews the advantages and risks, associated with crafting such policies, and argues that demand for such measures is on the rise, not just in high value-added industries but also in other spheres. Indeed, while Local Content policies may present some disadvantages, restricting foreign contributions to the production process in an attempt to cultivate local economic linkages, their explicit formulation offers a high degree of clarity to international investors, which could facilitate and regularize the activities of multinational corporations.

Russian Experience

65-83 861
Abstract

The paper raises two main questions: the definition of a Central Bank’s responsibility and the need of the exchange rate regulation for the countries with developing, emerging and post-transformed national economies. We also investigate this issue for Russian practice within the period of 1990s till nowadays. The paper provides an overview of the Central bank history, highlighting the stages of its evolution and the corresponding changes in the goal-setting for its activities and tasks. The goals and policy of the Bank of Russia are considered and evaluated in the context of modern international practice and efficiency of achieving the necessary level of financial stability and national economy development, preserving and strengthening economic sovereignty. Generally we use the Bank for international settlements (BIS) survey data processing, the comparative cross-country analysis of BIS statistics and econometric analysis of the data provided by Bank of Russia including exchange rate and investments (FDI, portfolio and other). We alsoanalyzed the main directions of the unified state monetary policy in the Russian Federation and the consequences of its implementation. The authors concluded that the countries of the representative group are more vulnerable to the negative impact of external factors on their national economy under the conditions of free-float exchange rates. The policy of the Russian Central Bank focused mainly on inflation targeting with the freely floating exchange rate of the ruble, is recognized as ineffective for solving internal problems of the national economy and confronting external threats and challenges, including current sanctions regime against Russia.

84-102 2081
Abstract

Multinational corporations (MNCs) are an important object of research. One of the aspects, which is studied, is their role and influence on the development of innovations in recipient countries. Direct investments from the European countries have the largest percentage in the overall stock of foreign investments in the Russian economy and energy sector, in particular. European oil&gas and energy MNCs, including BP, Total, Equinor, Shell, OMV, Eni, Enel, Fortum, Uniper have a long-term history of working in Russia, but mostly through bilateral partnerships with leading Russian players. European companies have provided their international experience and innovative approaches while working on joint ventures, as well as support several Russian universities and research centers through corporate social responsibility projects, which are, nevertheless, quite limited. In order to increase the in-novational effect of European MNCs’ activity in Russia it seems reasonable to develop “open” approach based on innovation and production clusters, which include small and medium enterprises, instead of developing relations in “closed” communication networks. One of the examples of “open” approach is the activity of the Italian Enel. Transition of the European economy to low carbon state (including the energy transition), changes in the strategic priorities of the European oil&gas and energy MNCs may have risks for the Russian energy sector (including the transborder carbon tax) as well as provide new opportunities for technological cooperation in the segments of alternative, hydrogen energy and others. Development of clusters may become one of the ways to reconfigure foreign investments, but the specifics of certain locations are to consider. Russian MNCs may also seize the moment to increase and diversify their presence in Europe.

103-121 1149
Abstract

This article considers the main directions of the activities of Western private military companies (PMCs) in the post-Soviet space. The end of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact led to the creation of an extensive arms market. The collapse of the Soviet army and the prolonged economic crisis frustrated a large number of former military personnel and made them ready to offer their professional skills to almost any solvent customer. The decay of the bipolar system of international relations has created vast zones of instability, mostly localized in Africa, the Balkans, and in the Middle East. The military security function no longer prevails in the largest Western PMCs. These corporations have significantly diversified their activities, thoughtfully excluded the word “military” from their names, and today provide customers with a wide range of services from cargo transportation and consulting to construction and geological exploration. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, the post-Soviet space does not provide Western PMCs with any broad field for participation in peacekeeping and counter-terrorism operations. Their contribution to the combat training of the armed forces of Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan was limited to only a few episodes. However, the gradual penetration of Chinese military companies into the Central Asian region has become a fundamentally new phenomenon.

Problems of the Old World

122-137 869
Abstract

Global European cities are important targets for foreign direct investment (FDI). The purpose of the article is to identify the causes of this phenomenon on the basis of empirical and theoretical analysis based on the concepts of global cities. London, Dublin, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Warsaw, which represent different types of global cities, were taken to conduct such a study. This determined the structure of the work, which consists of theoretical and methodological introduction, sections of the analysis of the FDI inflow in these cities, as well as a conclusion, which contains the main results ofthe work and the possibility of applying them to Moscow. The main conclusions of the article can be summarized as follows: global cities have their own specialization in FDI inflows, which is ensured by the presence of special attractive factors against the background of the general investment attractiveness of a country. It is possible to distinguish three key specializations (functions, roles) of a global city from the point of FDI inflow: international hub for transit capital, regional hub for the transfer of FDI to other parts of a country, site for FDI inflow to the city economy. The cities under consideration clearly demonstrate the different nature of their specialization, which depends on the different endowment of each city with specific attracting factors. London is a world leader and is able to accumulate an extremely large volume of FDI due to all three specializations. Dublin, although it is a young global city, already plays a key role in the inflow of FDI into the country as an international hub and partially as an attractive city economy. Amsterdam also specializes in the international hub activity and to a lesser extent as an attractive city economy. Frankfurt attracts substantial FDI into its economy on the base of its banking sector and also plays a role of the regional hub. Warsaw also plays the roles of a recipient of FDI and a regional hub.

138-160 940
Abstract

The article shows that the one of key factors of the socio-economic development of Spain in the post-Franco period was the true corporate revolution - the folding of a large group of companies whose production activities have crossed national borders and become international. The process of internationalization of Spanish business covered various sectors of the economy, including the military-industrial complex, and had an impact on the geopolitical situation of the Spanish state, it’s foreign policy. In addition, according to the author, the strengthening of the position of transnational business largely ensured Spain’s exit from the crisis of 2008-2009 and helped to overcome its severe effects. It was the increased and focused activity of local enterprises (industrial, engineering and construction companies) in foreign markets that largely compensated for the failures of domestic consumer demand, supported the level of production and ensured acceptable profitability of business activities. In general, Spanish companies, despite periodic crises, have benefited greatly from the process of globalization, have been able to adapt themselves to the international trade and economic order that prevailed at the beginning of the 21st century and have obtained profits from the existing rules of the game. Therefore, the factors of destabilization of the world economy and deglobalization were an unpleasant surprise for Spanish transnational corporations. First of all, we have in mind the turbulent processes in international markets, the UK’s exit from the European Union, the protectionist foreign economic course of the Trump administration, and, of course, the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

National Peculiarities

161-180 1057
Abstract

Historically uncontrollably growing debt obligations of Latin American countries were the source of the risk of global crisis. Given the strategic importance of a number of Latin American countries as suppliers of key commodities to the global market, the issue of the region’s debt sustainability is of particular importance in international economic relations. The purpose of the article is to reveal the level and nature of debt risks of Latin American states based on an examination of trends of their development. The relationship between a high level of public debt and low rates of economic growth as a factor of investor distrust in the region’s debt obligations was revealed, which negatively affects the cost of raising borrowed capital. The factors of economic and political instability in Latin American countries were generalized, including the prerequisites for the formation of a new debt crisis due to the annual increase in the volume of borrowed funds, mainly to cover the chronically growing budget deficits of Latin American countries, which, against the background of large-scale systemic shocks, makes their economies increasingly vulnerable. It has been substantiated that exposure to debt risk negatively affects the effective functioning of the state apparatus of Latin American countries due to the tendencies of a multiple increase in budgetary expenditures for servicing and repaying public debt. The authors analyze practice of a number of Latin American countries to compensate for the increase in the cost of servicing debtobligations at the expense of funds provided for social security of citizens, which provokes an aggravation of conflicts in the region. The prospects of economic stabilization in the region were discussed in the context of changes in the current model of income generation, oriented to the export of raw materials.

181-197 1028
Abstract

The aim of the presented study is to analyze the investment in the electricity sector of African states, its volumes and sources, as well as to determine its role and the level of sufficiency to overcome the problem of the continent’s energy poverty. The author concludes that external sources of finance play a key role in the development of Africa’s electricity sector and in the achieved success in electrification. China, international organizations, EU countries and the United States account for more than 80% of capital investments to this important sector of the economy. Large energy companies and banks are entering the promising African markets together with capital, and competition between them is increasing.

Nevertheless, the author’s assessment of quantitative data on the expansion of the African population’s access to electricity allows us to state that there is a significant gap in the volume of investments made and required to the industry. The pandemic of the new coronavirus infection, announced in March 2020, will certainly affect global financial flows and is likely to deepen thisgap, which poses an even greater threat to the achievement of the seventh Sustainable Development Goal, namely, ensuring universal access to electricity.

Thus, according to the author, in the medium term, the problem of the lack of electricity on the African continent will not be completely resolved and may tend to worsen.

In conclusion, the author argues that, given the amount of investment required and the depth of the problem of energy shortages in Africa, the electricity industry is not closed from the entrance of new players and “there is enough room for everyone”. Thus, Russia, possessing modern technologies and experience in the implementation of energy projects abroad, could become a full-fledged and significant player in the promising electricity markets in Africa.

198-216 1917
Abstract

The article explored the impact of the pandemic and the ensuing quarantine on the Chinese economy and its attractiveness to foreign investors. At the end of the first quarter of 2020, there was a sharp decline in almost all Chinese socio-economic indicators. The year to year decline in GDP, retail sales and exports by 6.8%, 19% and 11.4% respectively, looked especially dramatic. Against that negative background, the question arose, firstly, about the urgent launch of the program to stimulate the economy and, secondly, the need to develop and implement a new model of economic development for the PRC.

After a slight delay, the Chinese authorities launched a series of fiscal and monetary measures aimed at supporting the national economy, including: reducing or canceling various payments to the budget (taxes, social security contributions, etc.), reducing loan rates, the ratio of reserve requirements, direct and indirect payments to citizens, etc.

Thanks to government support measures, the main socio-economic indicators for the third quarter of 2020 showed growth, although less than Beijing would like. The lack of private consumption by Chinese households remains the main problem.

Implementing support measures, the Chinese authorities have unveiled a new strategy for economic development, called «dual circulation», which aims to stimulate domestic private consumption.

The authors come to the conclusion that, firstly, despite external and internal challenges, China, as a whole, will be able to achieve the indicative indicators laid down in the 13th five-year plan for the social and economic development of the PRC for 2016-2020. Secondly, the tasks of complete elimination of poverty in the country will be successfully solved and plans for the construction of a society of «moderately prosperous society» will be implemented. Thirdly, China in the short and medium term will retain its attractiveness for foreign investment, but not within the framework of the «investment in the production of goods for export» scheme, but within the framework of «investment in the production of goods for domestic consumption».



Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2542-0240 (Print)
ISSN 2587-9324 (Online)