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Vol 11, No 5 (2018): Africa in the New Millenium: Towards Modernisation
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-5

Political Processes in the Changing World

6-21 7002
Abstract

The article analyses the transfiguration of Africa’s position in the emerging new model of world economic development. The author emphasizes that until recently Africa was assigned the role of an “outsider” of the world economy. The transition of developed countries to a postindustrial and innovative development model has further exacerbated the lagging behind of the countries of the region from the advanced directions of the economy. Other negative factors that affected the development of African economies in the second decade of the 21st century include the high dependence of the African economy on commodity exports, the slowdown in China’s growth, the socio-economic consequences of the so-called “Arab spring”, primarily the destruction of Libya, and the continuation of old and the emergence of new conflicts in a number of African states. Despite numerous and often successful attempts by external forces to keep Africa as an object within the world economy and politics, the continent is increasingly becoming an active “subject” in international relations, and its development in the coming decades may, in our view, change its position in a new model of world development. Beginning in the 2030s, Africa, according to the forecasts, including those made at the Institute of African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, will turn into the most important and almost unique global strategic reserve of sources of raw materials within the framework of the “Coming (New) Production Revolution” – NPR, Next (in other documents New) Production Revolution. The African continent today occupies the leading positions in the world precisely for those commodities that have no analogues and are vital for the development of defense and innovative technologies of the 21st century. Other important factors in the accelerated development of Africa are the quantitative and qualitative growth of the continent’s labor potential, the expansion of consumption in the African domestic markets, the economic diversification in a number countries of the continent by means of increasing the share of services and industry in GDP, and a significant improvement in the business climate as a result of improved investment legislation and the gradual stabilization of domestic political of the situation. Besides the increase in financial revenues in various forms, regional integration, (including a continental free trade zone), will be a key to accelerating economic growth in the African continent, which
will allow for joint and more effective use of the potentials of individual African states.  Modern Africa is a dynamically growing market of labor force, consumer goods, investment, modern technologies, high technology machinery products. The author anticipates in the foreseeable future the realization of a scenario of gradual evolvement of a joined pan-African pole of global significance. 

From the Point of Economics

22-37 1160
Abstract

The author has developed new criteria for the inclusion of African countries in the group of small countries. It is noted that the criteria for assignment to small countries in the developed world cannot fully meet the criteria applicable to the African continent. On the basis of a comparison of the population of Africa with some countries of Europe, small states of the African continent are singled out. Emphasize the fact that a single criterion for attributing to small countries has not yet been developed. In the author’s opinion, it is incorrect to evaluate African countries using only economic indicators, since economic growth rates do not always coincide with demographic indicators, sociocultural transformations, and ethnic and tribal characteristics in Africa. The main types of foreign economic strategies of small African countries are identified and considered. It is shown that the states of the African continent often use several strategies for the development of their countries. The small countries of the African continent are actively involved in integration processes that fit into the overall concept of African modernization and development. An important role in the processes
of modernization in Africa is played by international financial, educational, innovative and technical programs. Often, it is precisely small countries that become a kind of transport hub at the regional level, which contributes to the strengthening of foreign economic relations between the countries of the regions of the African continent, attracts considerable financial, resource, and innovative capital to African countries. The historical and ethno-tribal characteristics of some African states, especially the long and bloody wars, hinder the progressive development of these countries. A vivid example of such tragic events is Rwanda (attributed to the small states by the author of the article), where incessant civil wars have undermined the economic and political stability in the region. In such cases, substantial international assistance will be required with the involvement of Rwanda’s neighboring countries for the implementation of possible major regional programs and investment projects. Since innovative infrastructure projects in African countries are possible only with the involvement of all countries of the region, in this regard, Russia will need new management approaches and interesting projects for the integrated development of the African continent to actively participate in ambitious African projects. 

38-54 10021
Abstract

Despite the fact that the African continent is positioned as one of the fastest growing economies in the world (especially the sub-region of sub-Saharan Africa), the lack of industrialization and the use of modern technologies continues to be a brake on the development of the economies of African countries, which largely depend on agriculture and exports of raw goods that have a relatively low added value and account for more than 80% of their exports. This has a negative impact not only on the economic development of the region, but also on per capita incomes of the population. This article assesses the existing economic potential of African countries, which is one of the most important factors for overcoming economic backwardness, achieving the goals of sustainable development, raising the standard of living of the population and changing the status of SSA countries in the world economic system. It is shown that it is important for African states to attract new technologies and innovative products to the industrial and agricultural sectors, since knowledge and innovations are the locomotive of economic growth and are one of the most important factors in the reconstruction and modernization of their economies.

55-73 1766
Abstract

Chinese companies are actively involved in building infrastructure facilities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a substantial part of the projects funded by Chinese banks. According to some estimates, more than 60% of all Chinese loans granted to the SSA countries from 2000 to 2015 were provided to this end. Vast  majority of the projects are carried out by the state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Their main advantages are the opportunity to obtain concessionary financing for the project, a special Chinese model of financing, a government support of activities serving the national strategic goals and the expertise gained from the implementation of similar projects in China. This
combination of Chinese banks and companies is an effective tool for promoting China’s strategic economic and political interests. Meanwhile, it gives the SSA countries a unique opportunity to implement large-scale infrastructure projects necessary for further socio-economic development. China’s participation in infrastructure projects in the SSA countries began in the 1960s, and there has been a marked increase in the scale and number of projects since the first decade of the 21st century. In response to the launching “One belt, one road” initiative, the focus is shifting towards cross-border and transregional mega-projects. Chinese financing model profile described in the article comprise “tied” loans, no-political-strings-attached approach (except for the recognition of the “one China” principle), combined schemes to reduce the risk of non-repayment of loans and non-transparent transaction terms. The key areas of infrastructure development by Chinese companies in the SSA countries, i.e. energy, transport and telecommunications, are considered in detail. Particular attention is paid to the largest projects in each area. The problems arising during the implementation of Chinese infrastructure projects, as well as features of the project implementation environment on the African continent are analyzed. 

National Peculiarities

74-85 2956
Abstract

The article analyzes the opportunities and threats facing the People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria at the moment. Algeria has the potential to become a regional leader in one of the most strategically important regions of the world in a number of parameters. These are natural and human resources, stable economic and diplomatic ties with the Arab world, Europe and America. Both the major powers and the neighbours in the region have placed their hopes in Algeria as a key partner in the efforts to ensure security and combat terrorism. The Algerian authorities seek to present their country as a strong regional leader, free from the internal divisions and extremism that have plagued other Arab States. However, in reality the situation is more complicated, Algeria is a potentially unstable state. At the moment, Algeria is in a difficult situation, given both the internal situation and the danger posed from the outside. The main reason for the political and economic uncertainty in the country is the expectations and fears associated with the upcoming change of power, the presidential elections are scheduled for spring 2019. Algeria’s socio-economic sphere was another vulnerable place that could, in case of unfavourable  developments, create instability. The Berber issue, which threatens the unity of the country, is one of the long-standing major problems of the Algeria. The confrontation between Algeria and Morocco on the Western Sahara issue has led to keep on the zone of instability in the region and has contributed to the terrorist threats. Over the past decade, Algeria has had to pay increasing attention and resources to regional security issues. In this area, Algeria has demonstrated its commitment to peaceful diplomacy, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states and rejection of any external role of its armed forces. This position has brought the Republic international recognition as a regional leader and a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism. 

86-104 1193
Abstract

Egypt is the most dynamically developing country in the region of North Africa. In the nearest future, it is expected to turn into the largest economy of Africa in terms of GDP measured by PPP and to overtake Nigeria. The leadership of Egypt considers accelerated development of the national energy complex, including electricity sector, as one of the main drivers of the economic growth. It will be based on the latest achievements of scientific and technological progress and new forms of attracting foreign direct investment, mainly concession agreements in the format of public-private partnership. This allows medium-sized companies to participate in the process of transnationalization that becomes one of its distinguishing features on the modern stage. The master plan for the development of the electric power industry until 2035 envisages the use of various traditional and renewable energy sources. It is planned to create a balanced electric power generation structure, overcoming the current bank tilt towards gasfired thermal power plants. It is expected that in the 2034/35 financial year coalfired power plants in Egypt will account for 34.0% of electricity generation, 19.4% for solar power plants (11.8% for photovoltaics and 7.6% for concentrated solar power), 19.4% for gas-fired power plants, 14.6% for wind power plants, 8.8% for nuclear power plants, 3.2% for hydro power plants and almost 0.6% for thermal power plants working on fuel oil. The objective of electricity sector’s development is the creation of an advanced branch of the economy, in which renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies play an important role, ensuring uninterrupted and reliable energy supply, as well as turning the country into a regional energy hub. All this will contribute not only to overcoming the crisis phenomena in the industry itself, observed since 2010s, but also to further change in the nature of the inclusion of the Egyptian economy in the system of the international division of labor, which has undergone significant changes over the past decades.

105-118 1704
Abstract

The development of transport infrastructure is a priority objective for many African countries. This process has significant impact on the efficiency of continental and world trade corridors, and also influence on the costs of economic activity. In this case, the transformation in the transport sector of Ethiopia must be noted. The government of the country has taken a decision to create national railway network and develop aviation and road lines of communication. After The Eritrean War of Independence Eritrean separation was announced and Ethiopia lost its maritime infrastructure and became a landlocked country. This situation provides great difficulties in process of international trade and economic activity for the region. Now the development of transport corridors which connect economic centers with large ports of the region is a priority task for Ethiopian government. In this case Ethiopia is actively attracting foreign investors and world financial organizations to create stable, efficient and economically profitable ways of transport communication with the port infrastructure of neighboring countries. This year, Chinese companies finished to rebuilt the railway line Addis Ababa-Djibouti, in the coming years, governments of Kenya and Ethiopia, will launch new Mombasa-Nairobi-Addis Ababa motorway. This infrastructure projects are essential for enhancing Ethiopian competitiveness and economic activity and provide opportunity to reduce transport costs. Moreover, the Ethiopian authorities are making great progress in developing the internal transport infrastructure, first of all, in terms of increased paved road and development of railway infrastructure, which promotes more efficient use of natural,
economic and human resources. Foreign companies are actively involved in realization of this transport projects and it can be a perspective area for cooperation between Russian Federation and Ethiopia. The article provides a detailed overview of Ethiopian transport sector and describes the key infrastructure
projects which can be interesting for Russian companies.

Under Discussion

119-141 15689
Abstract

The article deals with China’s policy in Africa in the last decade. As the analysis shows, China is increasing steadily its presence in Africa, not only in the countries rich in resources, although the resources, especially oil, remain of particular importance for the Chinese economy, but also in the poor in natural resources and little attractive from the strategic point of view states. The author analyzes the features of China’s diplomacy on the continent, China-Africa trade relations, the activities of Beijing as a donor and investor in Africa. Special attention is paid to “One belt – one road” initiative, which takes the important place in today’s China strategy, and to role, which African countries, located on the crossroads of the land and sea “silk roads”, play in this initiative. The Chinese strategy envisages the implementation of infrastructure projects, including the construction of railways and highways, aviation communications, energy projects, industrial parks, and construction of seaports in coastal countries. The growth of Beijing’s investments in African economy and the expansion of the spheres of its influence on the continent are the subjects of close attention of politicians, scientists and media. On the one hand, they link with China’s policy the economic growth of African countries, some of which have entered into the ranks of the fastest growing states of the world. On the other hand, they accuse Beijing in “neo-colonial policy”, claiming that China is guided by its own interests, far from the African interests, and violates human rights and environmental standards in struggle for resources. The author concludes that an objective analysis of the various aspects of Beijing’s activities in Africa in the last decade, as well as the assessment of this activity by Africans in the course of interviews, may allow to establish the truth.

142-163 2012
Abstract

The article considers the essence and peculiarities of realizing of human security in the EU external policy in general and specifically in Africa. The article reveals the principles of the EU interest in Africa as a focus of their humanitarian policy: phantoms of the collective memory of the political class of Western European countries, huge potential of resources and markets, migration and terrorist threat. It is argued that this policy is considered by the EU as its strategic foreign policy narrative, in the course of which the Union, while ensuring the security of the African continent, primarily realizes its own interests. Specific features of the interpretation of this narrative in official documents of Germany as a key member of the EU are specified. It is revealed that Germany aims to play a major role in shaping European policy towards the African continent, and the specificity of its approach is economic-centric, which distinguishes it from the EU’s general approach to Africa. The key question of the article is how is disinterested Germany’s role, despite its permeation with the spirit of liberal values as a supplier of human security to African countries. It is shown that the discrimination of refugees and migrants in migration flows in the EU emphasized the importance of the Union’s activities in ensuring human security in Africa. In accordance with its goal to become the leading actor of the EU policy on the continent, its role as a leader of the liberal world and the peculiarities of the consequences of the migration crisis for the political and party system of the country and the stability of the social state, Germany proposed the German “Marshall Plan” for Africa as a concretization of its humanitarian policy on the continent. The parameters of this Plan, its advantages and implementation difficulties are considered. It is concluded that the Germany’s approach to Africa, on the whole, indisputably contributes to the latter’s development. At the same time, it is to a large extent focused on solving the tasks of ensuring national security of Germany itself, promoting the interests of German business, creating new German “reserves” in Africa through the African partnership. In this bi-directional process there is no obvious contradiction, but the results of this process can become ambivalent.

164-181 1649
Abstract

The article examines the place of African countries in the US counter-terrorism strategy under the administrations of G.W. Bush and B. Obama. It is alleged that at the turn of the 2010-s the significance of this trend has increased due to the intensification of Islamists in the countries of West Africa and the new round of the civil war in Somalia. This led to an intensification of the military presence and tightened cooperation with the allies, on which the Americans also sought to entrust the main struggle against the radicals. There are several directions of counterterrorism policy: the provision of technical assistance to partner countries for the development of special forces; the building of subregional mechanisms for coordinating counter-terrorism actions; intensification of cooperation in the financial sphere; carrying out separate military operations, mainly by UAV forces. In the end, it
was the African direction that turned out to be the most successful example of Obama’s “leading from the behind” strategy. Despite the fact that under the influence of the Arab Spring and the rise of the ISIS in the Middle East in 2011-2014, there was an escalation of violence in the region, in general, the main goals of combating Islamist terrorism by the end of 2016 were achieved by the USA. In Somalia, Nigeria and Libya, Americans relied on the local forces concerned, restricting participation by coordinating allies, providing intelligence and striking individual blows. The French intervention in Mali in 2013 enabled the Europeans to shift the main burden of fighting local Islamists. In addition, Egypt, receiving abundant military assistance from the United States, did not allow the expansion of the ISIS’s zone of operations in the Sinai Peninsula, but it was not possible to fully cope with the small local branch due to the instability of relations with local tribes that remain outside the control of the central government.

Asia: Challenges and Perspectives

182-199 2052
Abstract

In article commercial relations and investment streams between India and the countries of Africa in the conditions of globalization of the XXI century are considered. Scales and filling of their economic interaction are significantly differ, determined by the level of development of national economy and features of external demand for the made production. High need of the countries of Africa for inflow of foreign investments, especially taking into account strong lag of most of them in development of own research and development remains. In intercontinental communications o f Africa the high activity is characteristic of India which government in 2002 has adopted the program “In focus Africa”, aimed at continuous development of economic contacts with the countries of the continent. The considerable share in their GDP of the shadow sector remains essential negative feature of economic structures of the countries of Africa and India. It not only complicates adequate assessment of the economic processes happening in these countries, but also has an adverse effect on efficiency of the state institutes. It was designated, though uneven on scales, formation of the middle class and, as a result, new types of consumption, demand and their proliferation. Respectively, their domestic markets increase and differentiated that increases interest in access to them for foreign exporters and investors. Special importance is represented by economic policy of India in the relations with the countries of Africa, including with use of “soft power” for further expansion of the positions. The main forms of economic relations of India and the countries of Africa, the growing activity of large business structures, the top-level annual economic summits are considered. In export of the African countries to India the high share of raw materials, first of all agricultural and also hydrocarbons steadily remains. The share of the African oil in the general import of India in 2016 has made 15%. Along with traditional presence in the African and South Asian markets of the leading countries of the West, economic influence of China as exporter and investor amplifies. Influence of the Japanese and South Korean capitals grows in competition for the African markets. In February, 2018 the countries of Africa have agreed about creation of the common market. Such prospect will significantly aggravate the competition for economic positions in trade and investments with the countries of African continent.

200-218 1306
Abstract

In the twenty-first century African countries have not only taken a significant step forward in their economic development as a whole, but have also strengthened their positions in the world economy. One manifestation of this is the emergence of new foreign economic partners for African countries. African countries have become more interesting, not only for Asian giants – China and India, but also for Southeast Asia countries, which have just recently started their outward expansion. The main purpose of this study is to create an initial, most general panorama of how trade and investment relations between the Southeast Asian and African countries developed in the new century. As regard for trade, we used a quite complete statistical database under the auspices of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Southeast Asia was represented by all 10 of ASEAN member-countries. The African continent was portrayed by 47 countries. A comprehensive analysis of the statistical data showed that the trade operations of Southeast Asian countries with their African partners were profitable for them: in 2010–2016 they had a permanent surplus on these operations. It was found that in 2010–2016. the main partners of African countries were Thailand (with turnover of 69 billion dollars.). Singapore ($64 billion)) and Malaysia ($48 billion).). Companies from Southeast Asian countries expect to expand on the African continent, taking into account, in particular, the following factors: the need to enlarge and diversify their imports of oil and gas. as well as some types of industrial raw materials that are not available in Southeast Asia; constantly growing opportunities to expand exports of their goods, in order to meet growing consumer demand in African countries; Southeast Asian exporters expect a significant expansion of their exports following the entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area) in 2022. As for investment links, we were forced to gather by trifles everything concerned about Southeast Asian investments on African continent. Reliable generalizing statistics on this segment of economic relations either do not exist, or it is not available to research community. As a result of monitoring of investment contacts, it was possible to collect the final material giving a short  overview of this process.

Point of View

219-235 1720
Abstract

China and Egypt have established diplomatic relations for 62 years. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI) and welcomed countries along the routes to take part in co-operations in the framework of the BRI. And in 2014, Egyptian new-elected President Sisi visited China and both sides improved the bilateral relationship to the comprehensive strategic partnership. Then in 2016, Egyptian President Sisi launched a new national development strategy named “Egypt Vision 2030”. Therefore China and Egypt want to look for suitable areas to cooperate according to these two plans. In this case, this paper analyzes the implementation of the strategic synergy between the BRI and “Egypt Vision 2030”, including the introduction to the “Egypt Vision 2030”, the mutual cognition of the developmental strategies of China and Egypt, the outcomes achieved and the risks faced by the synergy between the strategies of these two countries, and then considers that both China and Egypt welcome and support each other’s developmental strategy. At present, the synergy between the two countries’ strategies has made significant achievements under the frequent promotion of top leaders, but there are also political, economic and security risks in the process of strategic synergy, which still hinder thesynergy.

236-248 1646
Abstract

Africa is rising as the new market in the 21st century. Before the 2000s Africa was regarded as a “continent of crisis” plastered with poverty and war. However, it is now being spotlighted as the ‘last new market on Earth’ due to its development potential. Its value is being reevaluated because it presents new opportunities as an unexplored market. It present opportunities across a wide range of industries: from consumer goods to manufacturing, agriculture, natural resource development and infrastructure. Korea has been ignorant of Africa’s development potential till the mid-2000s but is now looking at Africa as a new opportunity market or cooperation partner. It is taking diverse measures such as through state visits and increase of development aid to strengthen cooperation. Korea perceives Africa’s potential from a future oriented perspective and is expanding economic cooperation from a long-term standpoint. Consequently, Korea is working towards establishing a future oriented partnership with Africa based on mutual trust by identifying core partnership projects that meet the needs of Africa. Korea seeks substantiality of its economic partnership with Africa by identifying priority countries of cooperation.



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ISSN 2542-0240 (Print)
ISSN 2587-9324 (Online)