COVID-19: От краткосрочной национальной устойчивости к среднесрочной многосторонней новой норме

Коронавирус COVID-19 потряс мир и заставил нас пересмотреть наши стратегии развития и всю системную структуру. Хотя глобализация способствовала пандемии, деглобализация не восторжествует. Глобализация будет, скорее, трансформирована, чтобы способствовать позитивным трендам и уменьшать/устранять ее негативные последствия. Пандемия, помимо негативных последствий (распространение вируса), продемонстрировала некоторые очень позитивные стороны глобализации, такие как научное сотрудничество. Повышение устойчивости стало главной стратегией человечества не только с точки зрения сдерживания пандемии, но и с точки зрения ее предотвращения в долгосрочной перспективе. Сочетание сдерживания и заблаговременного предотвращения пандемий выглядит наилучшей стратегией, потому что вирусы никуда не исчезнут, оставшись среди нас. Это можно сделать, разрешив неразрешимую с точки зрения Родрика трилемму между автономией, глобализацией и демократией как на национальном, так и на многостороннем уровне. На основе возможных сценариев развития событий в будущем мы демонстрируем, какие многосторонние решения необходимы для упреждающего создания стабильной и эффективной основы для корректировки и перестройки стратегий и поведения всех агентов (отдельных лиц, фирм и государств), причем исходя из существующих рамок. Такая многосторонняя структура должна оставлять достаточно места для национальных действий, когда они лучше соответствуют национальным приоритетам, и для заполнения пробелов, если международные учреждения не смогут добиться успеха в решении новых задач. Требуются переосмысление наших взглядов и теорий, а также новые виды образования и обучения для создания новых компетенций микроагентов.

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