Assessment of Factors and Indicators Influencing the Cyclical Development of the Economy of Azerbaijan

We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.

1. Andreev M.Yu. (2016) Leading Signal Indicators of the Crisis of Russian Financial Market and Their Relationship with Business Cycles. Finance and Credit, no 25 (697). Available at: https://elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_26338300_34059731.pdf, accessed 01.07.2020 (in Russian).

2. Aziz J., Caramazza F., Salgado R. (2000) Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements. IMF Working Paper. no 00/67. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Currency-Crises-In-Search-of-Common-Ele-ments-3549, accessed 03.07.2020.

3. Bame M. (2019) Fixed Price Contracts. ThoughtCo., July 3, 2019. Available at: https://www.thoughtco.com/fixed-price-contracts-1052242, accessed 03.07.2020.

4. Caprio J., Klingebiel D. (1996) Bank Insolvencies: Cross-country Experience. Research Working Paper. no WPS 1620, Washington: World Bank Group.

5. Drobyshevskij S.M. (2007) Monitoring Financial Instability in Developing Economies (on the Example of Russia), Moscow: IJePP (in Russian).

6. Eichengreen B., Rose A. (1998) Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises. NBER Working Papers 6370.

7. Eichengreen B., Rose A., Wyplosz C. (1995) Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks. Economic Policy, vol. 10, no 21, pp. 249-312.

8. Frankel J.A., Rose A.K. (1996) Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment. Journal of International Economics, vol. 41, no 3-4, pp. 351-366.

9. Glick R., Moreno R. (1999) Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America. Centre for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies. Working Paper no PB99-01. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Economic Research Department.

10. Global Financial Stability Report (2019). IMF, April 2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/ru/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2019/03/27/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-April-2019, accessed 03.07.2020 (in Russian).

11. Hansen E. (1997) Business Cycles and National Income. Vol. 2. Keynesian Classics: in 2 vols., Moscow: Ekonomika (in Russian).

12. Jevons H.S. (1910) The Causes of Employments. The Sun's Heat and Trade Activity, London.

13. Keane M., Moffitt R., Runkle D. (1988) Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 96, no 6, pp. 1232-1266. DOI: 10.1086/261586

14. Mankiw N.G. (2009) Principles of Macroeconomics, 4th edition, Saint Petersburg: Piter (in Russian).

15. McConnell C.R., Brue S.L. (2003) Economics: Principles, Problems and Politics, Moscow: Infra-M (in Russian).

16. Moffatt M. (2018) A Beginner’s Guide to Economic Indicators. Thought-Co., February 19, 2018. Available at: https://www.thoughtco.com/beginners-guide-to-economic-indicators-1145901, accessed 02.07.2020.

17. Mogi R., Shvager D. (2017) Technical Analysis. Full Course, Moscow: Al’pina Pablishers (in Russian).

18. Moore G.H. (1950) Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.

19. Moore G.H. (ed.) (1961) Studies in Business Cycles. Vol. 2. Business Cycles Indicators: in 2 vols., Princeton: Princeton University Press.

20. Moore G.H. (1983) Business, Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, Cambridge, Mass: Ballinger Publishing Company.

21. Ngakosso A. (2018) Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Congo. Modern Economy, no 9, pp. 174-189. DOI: 10.4236/me.2018.91011

22. Ostapkovich G.V. (2000) About the System of Indicators of Cyclical Economy. Voprosy statistiki, no 12, pp. 15-17 (in Russian).

23. Sadovnichij V.A., Akaev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Maikov S.Yu. (2012) Modeling and Forecasting of World Dynamics, Moscow: ISPI RAN (in Russian).

24. Smirnov S.V. (2012) Russian Cyclical Indicators and Their Usefulness in “Real Time”: The Experience ofthe 2008-2009 Recession. The HSE Economic Journal, no 4, pp. 479-513. Available at: https://ej.hse.ru/data/2013/03/19/1292588157/16_04_05.pdf, accessed 03.07.2020 (in Russian).

25. Snieska V., Masteikiene R., Vencku-viene V., Valodkiene G. (2013) Pro-Cyclical Regulation and its Consequences in the Credit Crisis. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 4, no 9, pp. 602-609. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n9p602

26. Statistical Bulletins of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (1997-2018). Available at: https://www.cbar.az, accessed 03.07.2020 (in Azerbaijan).

27. Statistical Bulletins of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (1997-2018). Available at: https://www.stat.gov.az, accessed 03.07.2020 (in Azerbaijan).

28. Tabolov A.G. (2007) System of Leading Indicators for the Republic of Belarus. Bankawski vesnik, no 31, pp. 30-36 (in Russian).

29. Tiapkina M.F., Mongush I.D., Akimova I.O. (2017) A Study of the Cyclicity Indicators of the Country’s Economic Development. Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 59, no 5, pp. 398-409. DOI: 10.1080/10611991.2017.1352342

30. Tsvetkov V.A., Zoidov K.H., Gubin V.A., Il’in M.V., Kondrakov A.V. (2010) The Study of Economic Cycles in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union, Moscow: CJeMI RAN (in Russian).

31. Vechkanov G.S., Vechkanova G.R. (2010) Macroeconomics, 2nd edition, Saint Petersburg: Piter (in Russian).

32. Yamarone R.E. (2010) Key Economic Indicators, Moscow: SmartBuk (in Russian).

33. Yépez C.A. (2018) Cyclical Wage Movements in Emerging Markets Compared to Developed Economies: A General Equilibrium Comment. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, vol. 27, no 6, pp. 655-666. DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1416661

34. Zen’kova L.P. (2005) Cyclical Fluctuations in the Belarusian Economy: Turning Points and Some Indicators. Francisk Gomel State University, no 2, pp. 128-137 (in Russian).

35. Zen’kova L.P. (2009) Cyclicity in the Transformational Economy of Belarus: Institutional Aspect, Minsk: IVC Minfina (in Russian).

36. Zen’kova L.P. (2014) Leading Indicators of Economic Cycles in Developed Countries and Transformational Economies: Comparative Analysis. Control Sciences, no 3, pp. 29-37. Available at: http://www.bseu.by:8080/bitstream/edoc/75035/1/Zenkova_L.P._Problemy_uprav-leniya_2014_3.pdf, accessed 03.07.2020 (in Russian).