Legal Acts on the Independence of the Baltic Republics 1988–1990 As a Basis for Modeling the Secession Prevention Mechanism

For modern states, secession is a radical way of resolving the accumulated contradictions between them and the “mother” states, into which they entered for one reason or another. Ever since the adoption of the United States Declaration of Independence in 1776, a kind of tradition of formalizing the secession with a special act of independence has emerged in international law, in which its creators describe the reasons that prompted such a radical decision, declares the supremacy of the legislation of the seceded entity and contains a request for recognition of the sovereignty of the newly formed states from the international community.
Analysis of such acts can provide valuable information on the reasons for secession and allow the development of legal mechanisms to prevent it. Within the framework of this work, the acts of independence of the Baltic republics of 1988 – 1990 are considered, adopted during the collapse of the socialist system of Eastern Europe. Being the flagships of this process, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in their acts substantiated their choice in the most detailed way, in connection with which the declarations they adopted are of undoubted interest for the researcher.
Based on the method of modeling historical processes and the concept of “path dependence”, taking into account the material on the reasons for the secession obtained in the framework of the analysis of acts of independence, an attempt was made to develop a model of “peaceful secession” of the Baltic republics, which would be possible in the case of choosing a different option of behavior at the points bifurcation. The author names the development of a new Union Treaty, reforms of the perestroika period, the choice of the vector of ethno-national policy in the Union republics, the choice of the legal basis and the procedure of secession as the main points of “branching” that open “windows of opportunity” for the Baltic republics. The negative consequences of the current scenario of the development of relations between Russia and the Baltic republics and the advantages of a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the seceding and the “mother” state are described.

1. Ageeva K.A. (2017) Problems of Preserving the Canadian Federation and the Legal Status of the Province of Quebec in Modern Conditions. Ustojchivoe razvitie nauki i obrazovaniya, no 6, pp. 117– 124. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/ download/elibrary_29679040_89509103. pdf, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

2. Alonzi R. (2020) Migration Processes and Identity of the EU. Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, vol. 13, no 1, pp. 28-47 (in Russian). DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2020-13-1-2

3. Andreeva G.N., Ginzburg Yu.V., Hashhina E.E. (2019) Theoretical and Legal Foundations of Constitutional Mechanisms for Preventing Secession (Problem Statement). Collection of scientific Papers on the Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Man as a Subject of Social Changes: Socio-Economic, Political, Legal and Humanitarian Problems” (ed. Tkacheva E.P.), Belgorod, pp. 76–89 (in Russian).

4. Baturin Yu.M. (2008) Constitutional Studies, Moscow: Institut prava i publichnoj politiki (in Russian).

5. Baturin Yu.M. (2019) The Constitution of Russia: History and Future, Moscow: RAN (in Russian).

6. Blishhenko V.I. (2015) Russia and the Baltic States: The Search for Historical Truth. Observer, no 4(303), pp. 28– 43. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_23244597_52560708. pdf, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

7. Chernichenko S.V. (2004) About the “Occupation” of the Baltic States and Violation of the Rights of the Russian-speaking Population. International Affairs, no 8, pp. 212–215 (in Russian).

8. Cheshko S.V. (2000) The Collapse of the USSR: An Ethnopolitical Analysis, Moscow: IAE RAN (in Russian).

9. Feinstein S. (2010) Violent Secession in the Former Soviet Union: A Comparative Analysis of Moldova and Estonia, Washington DC: APSA.

10. Fogel R.W., Elton G.R. (1983) Which Road to the Past? Two Views of History, New Haven: Yale University Press.

11. Gorbachev M. (1995) Life and Reforms. Book I, Moscow: Novosti (in Russian).

12. Graf M. (2007) Estonia and Russia, 1917-1991: Anatomy of Separation, Tallin: Argo (in Russian).

13. Gushhin V. (2015) Decision of the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Latvia (Satversme Court) November 29, 2007 and the Doctrine of “International Legal Continuity” of the Latvian State From 1918 to 1990. Journal of Russian and Eastern European Historical Research, no 1(6), pp. 134– 154. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/reshenie-konstitutsionnogo-sudalatviyskoy-respubliki-suda-satversme-ot-29-noyabrya-2007-g-i-doktrina-mezhdunarodno-pravovoy, accessed 21.08.2020 (in Russian).

14. Khallik K., Shabaev Yu.P., Regel’mann A., Lamoro D.V., Bauring B., Poleshhuk V.V. (2015) Book Review: “Ethnic Politics in the Baltic States”. Ethnographic Review, no 1, pp. 153–174. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_23138089_67530953.pdf, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

15. Kozlov V.I. (1995) Russian Question. History of the Tragedy of a Great Nation, Moscow: IEA RAN (in Russian).

16. Krasnov M.A. (2016) Creating the Russian Constitution as a Special Case of the “Path Dependency”. Works on Russian Studies, no 6, pp. 85–128. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sozdanie-konstitutsii-rossii-kak-osobyy-sluchay-effekta-path-dependence, accessed 12.08.2020 (in Russian).

17. Kyaupa Z., Mjajesalu A., Pajur A., Straube G. (1999) History of the Baltic States, Tallin: Avita (in Russian).

18. Lukashin A.V. (2011) Problems of Developing and Concluding a New Union Treaty in the Context of Crisis Management in the USSR (March 1990-August 1991). Moscow University Bulletin. Series 21. Public Administration, no 3, pp. 126– 152. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-razrabotki-i-zaklyucheniya-novogo-soyuznogo-dogovora-v-kontekste-antikrizisnogo-upravleniya-v-sssr-mart-1990-avgust-1991/viewer, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

19. Madiès T., Rota-Grasiozi G., Tranchant J.-P., Trépier C. (2018) The Economics of Secession: A Review of Legal, Theoretical, and Empirical Aspects. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, no 154(1). DOI: 10.1186/s41937-017-0015-6

20. Malineckij G.G., Korotaev A.V. (2008) Problems of Mathematical History. Mathematical Modeling of Historical Processes, Moscow: LIBROKOM/URSS (in Russian).

21. Materials of the Round Table “Does History Have a Subjunctive Mood” (2004). Available at: http://ecsocman.hse.ru/data/2011/01/11/1214867411/%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%8F.pdf, accessed 05.08.2020 (in Russian).

22. Mel’tyukhov M.I. (2015) The Baltic Springboard in Moscow’s International Politics (1918–1939), Moscow: Algoritm (in Russian).

23. Mezhevich N. (2017) Problems and Prospects of Economic Relations between Russia and the Baltic States under Sanctions Regimes, Moscow: Russkaya kniga (in Russian).

24. Mezhevich N. (2019) On the Factors of Political Space and Statehood Formation in the Baltic States, 1917–1920. Journal of Russian and Eastern European Historical Research, no 2(17), pp. 184–198. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/k-voprosu-o-faktorah-formirovaniya-politicheskogo-prostranstva-i-gosudarstvennosti-v-pribaltike-1917-1920-gg/viewer, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

25. Motyl A. (1993) Estonia: Return to Independence, San Francisco: Westview Press.

26. Musaev V.I. (2017) Independence of the Baltic States and the “Russian Question”. Modern History of Russia, no 2(19), pp. 176–191 (in Russian). DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu24.2017.213

27. Parrott B. (1995) Reversing Soviet Military Occupation. State Building and Military Power in Russia and the New States of Eurasia, New York: M.E. Sharpe.

28. Reynaerts J., Vanschoonbeek J. (2016) The Economics of State Fragmentation-assessing the Economic Impact of Secession. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2736848

29. Ryanzhin V.A. (1960) The Socialist Revolution of 1940 in Estonia and the Transformation of the State Duma of Estonia into the Supreme Soviet of the Estonian SSR. Pravovedenie, no 4, pp. 113–122 (in Russian).

30. Sambanis N., Germann M., Schä- del A. (2017) SDM: A New Data Set on Self-determination Movements with an Application to the Reputational Theory of Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 62, no 3, pp. 656–686. DOI: 10.1177/0022002717735364

31. Shakhraj S.M. (ed.) (2016) The Collapse of the USSR: Documents and Facts (1986– 1992). Vol. 2, Moscow: Kuchkovo pole (in Russian).

32. Simonyan R.H. (2002) The Baltic States and the Collapse of the USSR. POLIS, no 6, pp. 151–154. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_5078641_62729928.pdf, accessed 07.08.2020 (in Russian).

33. Suesse M. (2019) Adjusting the Size of Nations: Empirical Determinants of Separatism and the Soviet Breakup. Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 47, no 1, pp. 50–64. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2018.10.002

34. Taagepera R. (1993) Estonia: Return to Independence, New York: Westview Press. The Act of Independence of Lithuania, Lost more than 70 Years Ago, Was

35. Found in Berlin (2017). RIA Novosti, March 30, 2017. Available at: https://ria.ru/20170330/1491097468.html, accessed 05.08.2020 (in Russian).

36. To the Union of Sovereign Peoples: A Collection of Documents of the CPSU, Legislative Acts, Declarations, Appeals and Presidential Decrees on the Problem of National and State Sovereignty (1991), Moscow: Institut teorii i istorii socializma. Available at: http://soveticus5.narod.ru/85/sborn91.htm#p336, accessed 7.07.2020 (in Russian).

37. Toivo U. (2001) Estonia and the Estonians, Palo Alto: Hoover Press.

38. Tomz M.R. (1994) The Morality of Secession, Oxford: Magdalen College.

39. Treiman J. (1990) The Soviet Secession Law Is a Sham. Lituanus. Lituanian Quarterly Journal of Arts and Sciences, vol. 36, no 3. Available at: http://www.lituanus.org/1990_3/90_3_07.htm, accessed 10.12.2020.

40. Turchin P., Nefedov S.A. (2009) Secular Cycles, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

41. Vergottini G. (2019) Referendum y Secesiόn. Teoria y Realidad Constitucional, no 43, pp. 103–119. DOI: 10.5944/trc.43.2019.24400

42. Walker E.U. (2003) Dissolution: Sovereignty and the Breakup of the Soviet Union, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield.

43. Yarve P. (2013) Soviet Heritage and Modern Ethnopolitics of the Baltic State. Ethnic Politics in the Baltic States (eds. Poleshhuk V.V., Stepanov V.V.), Moscow: Nauka, pp. 39–63 (in Russian).

44. Yuzhanin M.A. (2011) Ethno-national Policy of the State in a Multi-ethnic Society. Sociology of Power, no 6, pp. 176– 184. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_17106548_71256692.pdf, accessed 10.12.2020 (in Russian).

45. Zepa B. (2013) Discourse on Immigration Policy Formation in Latvia. Ethnic Politics in the Baltic States (eds. Poleshhuk V.V., Stepanov V.V.), Moscow: Nauka, pp. 343–358 (in Russian).

46. Zorin V.Yu. (2003) From National Policy to Ethno-cultural Policy: Problems of Formation of Doctrine and Practice (1990–2002). The Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology, vol. 6, no 3, pp. 122– 154. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/ot-natsionalnoy-politiki-k-etnokulturnoy-problemy-stanovleniya-doktriny-i-praktiki-1990-2002-gg, accessed 07.08.2020 (in Russian).

47. Zunda A. (2011) Baltijas Valstu Jautajums. 1940–1991, Riga: Zvaigzne ABC.