Development of Transit Potential of the Northern Sea Route

The sectoral structure of the Northern sea transport corridor is defined, the set of the transport tasks provided to them - the international transit, import and export operations, internal transportations is considered. It is shown that in relation to the water area of the sector of the Northern Sea Route both the international, and internal transportations (big cabotage and intersectoral transportations) can be referred to transit. The analysis of transit transportations across the Northern Sea Route between the countries in 2010-2018 is carried out, dynamics and commodity structure of transit is defined. Dynamics of transit transportations of main types of freights is considered: bulk freights (oil products, gas condensate), bulk cargoes (iron ore, coal). The analysis of dynamics of in-Russian transit transportations across the Northern Sea Route is carried out; dynamics of transportations of frozen fish which transportation the possibility of creation of the year-round container line between the ports of Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky, Murmansk, Arkhangelsk and St. Petersburg contacts is separately considered. Results of development of transit transportations in 2010-2018 are generalized and the factors defining demand of transit transportations of different types of freights are defined. Assessment of prospects of development of transit freight traffic by foreign shipping companies (Maersk) is given. The conclusion is drawn that a priority of development of navigation in the sector of the Northern Sea Route is providing national investment projects - transportations of mineral resources and ensuring activity of mining companies. At the same time, creation of a steady system of transportation of the Arctic mineral resources defines problems of development of icebreaking, navigation and hydrometeorological providing that will lead to reduction of risk of the Arctic navigation and will increase appeal of the sea Arctic transport system in general. It is defined that emergency conditions for development of navigation in the water area of the Northern Sea Route are: expansion of group of the domestic Arctic linear icebreaker fleet; central planning of sea freight transportation and coordination of actions of participants which could increase appeal of use of the Northern Sea Route including for transit transportations.

1. Arctic Strategic Outlook (2019). United States Coast Guard. U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, Washington, D.C. Available at: https://www.globalsecurity.org/ military/library/policy/navy/uscg-arctic_ strategic_outlook_20190422.pdf, accessed 12.12.2019.

2. Bolsunovskaya Yu.A., Boyarko G.Yu. (2014) Opportunities and Challenges of Jointly Building of the Polar Silk Road: China’s Perspective. European Social Science Journal, no 4(1), pp. 531-535. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/ pro fi le/ Julia_Bolsunovskaya/publication / 268147943_4_1_2014_531_OCENKA_ PERSPEKTIV_RAZVITIA_ SEVERNOGO_MORSKOGO_PUTI_KAK_MEZDUNARODNOJ_ TRANZITNOJ_MAGIST RALI/links/ 546221 ea0cf2 cb7e9da6436f.pdf,, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

3. China’s Arctic Policy (2019). The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, January 26, 2018. Available at: http://english.gov.cn/ar- chive/white_paper/2018/01/26/con- tent_281476026660336.htm, accessed 12.12.2019.

4. Grigorev M.N. (2016) (2016) North Sea Oil and Gas Yeast. Neftegazovaya Vertikal’, no 9, pp. 46-52. Available at: http://www.ngv.ru/magazines/article/neft- egazovye-drozhzhi-sevmorputi/, accessed (in Russian).

5. Grigorev M.N. (1) (2017) Development of Arctic Cargo Traffic. Arctic Herald, no 3, pp. 14-23. Available at: http://arctic- herald.ru/?p=586, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

6. Grigorev M.N. (2) (2017) International Cooperation in Sea Transportation of Russian Arctic Mineral Resources. Arctic Herald, no 1, pp. 52-59. Available at: http://arctic-herald.ru/?p=572, accessed (in Russian).

7. Grigorev M.N. (3) (2017) On the Evolution of the Northern Sea Corridor. Pro Arctic. Available at: http://pro-arctic. ru/03/02/2017/expert/25036, accessed (in Russian).

8. Hansen C.O. et al. (2016) Arctic Shipping - Commercial Opportunities and Challenges. Available at: https://servic- es-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20 Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20 Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf, accessed 12.12.2019.

9. Khejfets B. (2018) Northern Sea Route-New Transit Route «One Belt - One Way». International Affairs, no 7. Available at: https://interaffairs.ru/jau- thor/material/2047, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

10. Komkov N.I., Selin V.S., Tsukerman V.A., Goryachevskaya E.S. (2016) Scenario Forecast of the Northern Sea Route Development. Prognozy Prognozirovaniya, no 2, pp. 87-98. Available at: https://ecfor. ru/publication/razvitie-severnogo-mor- skogo-puti-stsenarnyj-prognoz/, accessed (in Russian).

11. Kryukov V.A. (2018) One Way - One Master? Do We Need a Single Operator of the Northern Sea Route. EKHO: vserossijskij ekonomicheskij zhurnal, no 5, pp. 5-17. Available at: https://ecotrends. ru/index.php/eco/article/view/1474/652, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

12. Kuvatov V.I., Koz’movskij D.V., Shatalova N.V. (2014) The Potential of the Northern Sea Route of the Arctic Zone of Russia. Factors and Development Strategy. Naukovedenie, no 6. Available at: http:// naukovedenie.ru/PDF/20TVN614.pdf, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

13. Lukin Yu.F. (2015) Northern Sea Route in Conditions of Geopolitical and Economic Instability: History and Modernity. Severnyj morskoj put’: razvitie arkticheskih kommunikacij v global’noj ekonomike «Arktika-2015»: VI Vserossijska- ya morskaya nauchno-prakticheskaya kon- ferenciya: materialy konferencii, May 13-14, 2015, Murmansk, pp. 44-47. Available at: https://narfu.ru/university/library/ books/2867.pdf, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian).

14. Pavlov K., Selin V. (2016) Northern Sea Route: Problems of Cargo Traffic Development. Ekonomist: ezhemesyachnyj nauchno-prakticheskij zhurnal, no 1, pp. 67-74 (in Russian).

15. Polovinkin V.N., Fomichev A.B. (2012) Perspective Directions and Problems of Development of the Arctic Transport System of the Russian Federation in the XXI century. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, no 3(7), pp. 74-83. Available at: http://arctica-ac.ru/article/347/, accessed (in Russian).

16. Ruksha V.V., Belkin M.S., Smirnov A.A., Arutyunyan V.G. (2015) Structure and Dynamics of Cargo Transportation on the Northern Sea Route: History, Present and Prospects. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, no 4, pp. 104-110. Available at: http://arctica-ac.ru/article/192/, accessed (in Russian).

17. Selin V.S., Koz’menko S.Yu. (eds.) (2015) Factor Analysis and Forecast of Cargo Flows of the Northern Sea Route, Apatity (in Russian).

18. Todorov A.A. (2017) International Transit Potential of the Northern Sea Route: Economic and Legal Aspects. National Strategy Issues, no 3(42), pp. 149-171. Available at: https://riss.ru/book- store/journal/2017-2/problemy-natsion- alnoj-strategii-3-42/, accessed 12.12.2019 (in Russian)DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-5-130-144