Predictably Unpredictable Trade Policy – the United States versus All Others

The article explores the Trump administration’s trade policy,  characterized by: attempts to rewrite the rules of international trade  according to the regulations established by the American side, “skepticism” with respect to the international regulatory  institutions of foreign trade, a course on the renegotiation of the  existing agreements. In a relationship with a number of countries,  manifestations of “ultimatizm” – the desire to negotiate with them from a position of strength are becoming increasingly evident.  Relapses of economic isolationism under the slogan “Restore the Greatness of America” periodically are being transformed into  concrete protectionist actions. The number of imposed import restrictions is growing, and their arsenal is expanding. It is  concluded, that tightening of the market access to the domestic  market for foreign suppliers is unlikely to lead to a significant  reduction in the US trade deficit. Bet on abandoning multilateral  arrangements in favor of bilateral trade agreements, conscious  downplaying of the role and importance of the WTO and other  international institutions can also be counterproductive. Focus on  dominance in the sphere of foreign economic activity apparently will remain the main direction of Trump trade policy until the end of the  term of his administration. However, under pressure from competitors, and because of the lack of real allies, the United States  will be forced to demonstrate greater flexibility and pragmatism, the  propensity to compromise and to establishment of temporary or  permanent blocs with their main trading partners. The idea of  “normality”, refraining from populism, will gradually begin to return  to the trade policy of this country. If, however the Trump  government will continue to act in isolation, without taking into  account the opinion of the world community, an increasing number  of partners of the United States will perceive it not as a leader, but as a violator of the rules of international trade. Under certain  circumstances, such a policy can provoke local and global trade  conflicts. In addition, the United States not necessarily will have to be the winner in them.

1. 2017 USTR Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance (2018). United States Trade Representative, January 2018. Available at: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/China%202017%20WTO%20Report .pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

2. Аmerikanskie fermery obespokoeny ugrozoj «torgovoj vojny» SSHА i Kitaya [US Farmers Are Concerned about the Threat of a “Trade War” between the US and China] (2018). Russian Service “Voice of America”, April 6, 2018. Available at: https://www.golos- ameriki.ru/a/us-chinatrade-war/4335050.html, accessed 20.04. 2018.

3. Bown Ch. (2017) Economics and Policy in the Age of Trump. Centre for Economic Policy Research, June 5, 2017. Available at: https://cepr.org/content/new-ebook-economics- and-policy-age-trump,accessed 20.04.2018.

4. Economic Report of the President (2018). Whitehouse.gov, February 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ERP_2018_Final-FINAL.pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

5. Evenett S., Fritz J. (2017) Will Awe Trump Rules? The 21st Global Trade Alert Report. London: CEPR Press.

6. Evropa ugrozhaet torgovoj vojnoj s SShА v sluchae vvedeniya novykh poshlin [Europe Threatens a Trade War with the US in Case of New Duties] (2018). Russian Service “Voice of America”, March 3, 2018. Available at: https://www.golos-ameriki.ru/a/trump-trade-war/4278284.html, accessed 20.04.2018.

7. Gillespie P. (2018) Trump Grants Tariff Exemptions for EU and Others on Steel and Aluminum. CNN Money, March 22, 2018. Available at: http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/22/news/economy/steelaluminum-tariff- exemptions/index.html, accessed 20.04.2018.

8. Grabow C. (2017) China and the US: Trading Places on Their Trade Positions? Washington Examiner, October 1, 2017.

9. Hart M. (2017) Can Trump Deliver on Economic Issues with China? Center for American Progress, November 6, 2017.

10. Hufbauer G. (2016) Could a President Trump Shackle Imports? Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2016. Available at: https://piie.com/system/files/documents/hufbauer20160922ppt.pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

11. Hufbauer G., Jung E. (2017) Trump’s Trade Agenda in Asia: It Could Have Been Worse. Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 13, 2017. Available at: https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-trade-agenda-asia-it- could-have-been-worse, accessed 20.04.2018.

12. Ikenson D. (2018) Has Trump Evolved on Trade? Forbes, February 12, 2018. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2018/02/12/has-trump-evolved-ontrade/# 3feb728d6f0a, accessed 20.04.2018.

13. Jensen B. (2016) Importers are Exporters: Tariffs Would Hurt Our Most Competitive Firms. Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 7, 2016. Available at: https://piie.com/blogs/tradeinvestment-policy-watch/importers-areexporters-tariffs-would-hurt-our-mostcompetitive, accessed 20.04.2018.

14. Kitaj primet kompleksnye kontrmery protiv torgovoj politiki SShА [China Will Take Comprehensive Countermeasures Against US Trade Policy] (2018). TASS, April 6, 2018. Available at: http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5100384 accessed 20.04.2018.

15. Korostikov M., Chernenko E., Mareeva E. (2017) Svobodnuyu torgovlyu stesnyayut chestnoj [Free Trade Is Constrained by Fair Trade]. Kommersant, November 7, 2017. Available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3459860, accessed 20.04.2018.

16. Lester S., Zhu H. (2017) Where is the Beef? Finding a Better Way to Resolve U.S. – China Trade Conflicts. CATO Institute, November 8, 2017. Available at: https://www.cato.org/publications/freetrade-bulletin/wheres-beef-finding-better-way- resolve-us-china-trade-conflicts, accessed 20.04.2018.

17. Lincicome S. (2017) Doomed to Repeat It. The Long History of America’s Protectionist Failures. CATO Institute. Policy Analysis, August 22, 2017, no 819. Available at: https://ru.scribd.com/document/369711539/Doomed-to-Repeat-It-The-Long-History-of- America-s-Protectionist-Failures, accessed 20.04.2018.

18. Meeting the China Challenge. Responding to China’s Managed Economy (2018). Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 29, 2018. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/meetingchina-challenge, accessed 20.04.2018.

19. MID: Rossiya ne ostavit novye sanktsii bez otveta [MFA: Russia Will Not Leave New Sanctions Unanswered] (2018). RIA Novosti, April 7, 2018. Available at: https://ria.ru/sanctions/20180407/1518118871.html, accessed 20.04.2018.

20. Mortensen J. (2017) Crisis, Compromise and Institutional Leadership in Global Trade: Unfair Trade, Sustainable Trade, and Durability of the Liberal Trading Order. Chinese Political Science Review, vol. 2, no 4, pp. 531–549.

21. National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2017). Whitehouse. gov, December 2017. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

22. O’Brien F. (2018) Trump’s Trade War and the $470 Billion Hit to the Global Economy. Bloomberg Businessweek, March 12, 2018. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/trump-s-trade-war-and-the-470- billion-hit-to-the-global-economy, accessed 20.04.2018.

23. Pethokoukis J. (2016) Just How Open is the US Economy? American Enterprise Institute, December 14, 2016. Available at: http://www.aei.org/publication/justhow-open-is-the-us-economy/, accessed 20.04.2018.

24. President Donald J. Trump is Fulfilling His Promise on The U.S. – Korea Free Trade Agreement and on National Security (2018). Whitehouse.gov, March 28, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-jtrump-fulfilling-promise-u-s-korea-freetrade-agreement-national-security/, accessed 20.04.2018.

25. President Donald J. Trump Is Promoting Free, Fair, and Reciprocal Trade (2018). Whitehouse.gov, February 2, 2018.Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings- statements/president-donaldj-trump-promoting-free-fair-reciprocaltrade/, accessed 20.04.2018.

26. President Donald J. Trump Is Standing Up To Russia’s Malign Activities (2018). U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Russia, April 6, 2018. Available at: https://ru.usembassy.gov/president-donald-j-trump-is-standingup-to-russias-malign- activities/, accessed 20.04.2018.

27. President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union Address (2018). Whitehouse. gov, January 30, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-stateunion-address/, accessed 20.04.2018.

28. President Donald J. Trump Will Protect American National Security from the Effects of Unfair Trade Practices (2018). Whitehouse.gov, March 8, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefingsstatements/president-donald-j-trumpwill-protect- american-national-securityeffects-unfair-trade-practices/, accessed 20.04.2018.

29. Presidential Memorandum on the Actions by the United States Related to the Section 301 Investigation of China’s Laws, Policies, Practices, or Actions Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation (2018). Whitehouse.gov, March 22, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/presidential-memorandum-actions-unitedstates-related-section-301- investigation/,accessed 20.04.2018.

30. Remarks by President Trump on His Trip to Asia (2017). Whitehouse.gov, November 15, 2017. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-trip-asia/, accessed 20.04.2018.

31. The Economic Effect of Significant U.S. Import Restraints: Ninth Update (2017). United States International Trade Commission, September 2017. Available at: https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4726.pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

32. The Effect of Imports of Aluminum on the National Security (2018). Commerce. gov, January 17, 2018. Available at: https://www.commerce.gov/sites/commerce.gov/files/the_effect_of_imports_of_aluminum_on_the_national_security_-_with_redactions_-_20180117.pdf, accessed 20.04.2018.

33. Under Section 301 Action, USTR Releases Proposed Tariff List on Chinese Products (2018). United States Trade Representative, April 2018. Available at: https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press- releases/2018/april/under-section-301-action-ustr, accessed 20.04.2018.

34. Villarreal M., Fergusson I. (2017) NAFTA Renegotiation and Modernization. Home Security Digital Library, October 12, 2017. Available at: https://www.hsdl.org/? abstract&did=805023, accessed 20.04.2018.

35. U.S.-EU Joint Report on T-TIP Progress to Date (2017). United States Trade Representative, January 2017. Available at: https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy- offices/press-office/press-releases/2017/january/us-eu-joint-report-t-tip-progress- 0, accessed 20.04.2018.

36. What You Need To Know About President Donald J. Trump’s Actions Responding To China’s Unfair Trade Practices (2018). Whitehouse.gov, April 6, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/need-knowpresident-donald-j-trumps- actions-responding-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/, accessed 20.04.2018.

37. Worstall T. (2017) The US’s Ridiculous WTO Claim Against China’s Aluminium Industry. Forbes, January 12, 2017. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/12/the-uss-ridiculous-wto-claim- against-chinas-aluminium-industry/#35b66ac56443, accessed 20.04.2018.