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Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право

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Оценка вероятности войны: сходства и различия между Европой в 1914 г. и Восточной Азией в 2014 г.

https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2016-9-4-18-56

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Аннотация

В статье рассматриваются структурные сходства между стратегической ситуацией в Европе летом 1914 года и в Восточной Азии в настоящее время, причем особое внимание уделяется вероятности начала крупномасштабной войны. Автор анализирует сходства, связанные с характером международной системы: так, ставится вопрос о том, является ли современная международная система открыто анархичной или же характеризуется тем, что ее основные участники обладают более или менее ясным пониманием механизмов и институтов, необходимых для поддержания мира и организации экономического обмена. В статье рассматриваются внутренние факторы (национализм, демократические, авторитарные или полудемократические режимы) и военная динамика с учетом особенностей географии и доступности военной техники и военных технологий. Рассматриваются также возможные сценарии военной эскалации. Особое внимание уделяется го сударствам, изолировавшим себя от внешнего окружения и располагающим военными средствами, которые могли бы позволить им одержать быструю победу над потенциальным противником. Автор приходит к выводу, что хотя число сходств между Европой в 1914 году и современной Восточной Азией очень невелико, высокая степень милитаризации на Корейском полуострове и углубление военного соперничества между США и Китаем в регионе указывают на возможность начала крупного вооруженного конфликта в не слишком отдаленном будущем.

 

Об авторе

Иоахим Краузе
Университет Киля
Германия
профессор, заведующий кафедрой международных отношений


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Для цитирования:


Краузе И. Оценка вероятности войны: сходства и различия между Европой в 1914 г. и Восточной Азией в 2014 г. Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право. 2016;9(4):18-56. https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2016-9-4-18-56

For citation:


Krause J. Assessing the danger of war: parallels and differences between Europe in 1914 and East Asia in 2014 Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law. 2016;9(4):18-56. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2016-9-4-18-56

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