Monroe Doctrine 2.0 vs “Community of Shared Future” in Latin America

This article analyzes the transformation of Latin America’s geopolitical landscape between 2001 and 2026 and the evolution of U.S. – China competition in the region. The study seeks to determine how China’s gradual expansion in trade, investment, infrastructure, energy, digital technologies, and institutional dialogue has changed the parameters of traditional U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. Using a problem- chronological approach, the article traces the main stages of China’s advance, from the commodity and trade linkage of the early 2000s to the investment, technological, and security-sensitive agenda of the mid-2020s. It argues that the decline of U.S. attention after 9/11 created a window of opportunity for China to consolidate its position in energy, digital technologies, healthcare, and institutional engagement with Latin American and Caribbean states. Particular attention is paid to Beijing’s strategic perception of the region, as reflected in the PRC’s 2025 White Paper, and to Washington’s response within the logic of Monroe Doctrine 2.0. The article concludes that by spring 2026 Latin America had become a space of geopolitical demarcation, where the United States intensified military-political pressure, China retained advantages in several economic and technological sectors, and regional states increasingly relied on strategic hedging.

1. Arsentyeva I.I. (2024). China’s Digital Silk Road: Challenges and Opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean. Vestnik RUDN. Seriia: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia. Vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 51–64 (in Russian). DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2024-24-1-51-64.

2. Borovsky Yu.V., Martynov B.F. (2023). Two Americas in Contemporary International Relations (1991–2023). Moscow: Aspekt Press Publ., 376 pp. (in Russian).

3. Borzova A.Yu., Borzov A.R., Piven E.A. (2025). The Role of International Cooperation in the Implementation of SDG 3 in Latin America: The Cases of the EU and China. Vestnik RUDN. Seriia: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia. Vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 610–623 (in Russian). DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2025-25-4-610-623.

4. Dussel Peters E. (2025). Latin America and the Caribbean–China Socioeconomic Relations: New Triangular Relationships and the Mexican Case in 2025. China International Strategy Review. Vol. 7, pp. 273–301. DOI: 10.1007/s42533-025-00194-9.

5. ECLAC (2025a). International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2025: International Trade in a New Era of Weaponized Interdependence. Executive Summary. Santiago de Chile: ECLAC, 21 pp. UN symbol: LC/PUB.2025/22. Available at: https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/528c5fe7-11fb-4664-a394-8a21732fc0f5/content, accessed 15.03.2026.

6. ECLAC (2025b). Relations Between Latin America and the Caribbean and China: Areas of Opportunity for More Productive, Inclusive and Sustainable Development. Santiago de Chile: ECLAC, 63 pp. UN symbol: LC/TS.2025/16. Available at: https:// www.cepal.org/en/publications/81531-relations-between-latin-america-and-caribbean-and-china-areas-opportunity-more, accessed 15.03.2026.

7. Ellis R.E. (2025). China’s 2025 White Paper on Latin America Sets the Stage for Renewed Competition with the US. The Diplomat. December 16. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/12/chinas-2025-white-paper-on-latin-america-setsthe-stage-for-renewed-competition-withthe-us/, accessed 15.03.2026.

8. Esclusa A.P. (2026). China Tightening Its Grip on Latin America. Geopolitical Intelligence Services. February 5. Available at: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-latin-america-2/, accessed 15.03.2026.

9. Hart D.M., Beams M. (2026). What Canadian and Mexican EV Imports from China Mean for the United States. Council on Foreign Relations. February 9. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/articles/what-canadian-and-mexican-ev-imports-from-china-mean-for-the-united-states, accessed 15.03.2026.

10. Leksyutina Ya.V. (2011). USA and China: Lines of Rivalry and Contradictions. St. Petersburg: St. Petersburg State University Publ., 230 pp. (in Russian).

11. Ot miroporyadka… (2005). Voitolovskii F.G., Gudev P.A., Solov’ev E.G. (eds.). From the World Order of Empires to the Imperial World Order. Moscow: IMEMO, 200 pp. (in Russian).

12. Prokhorenko I.L. (2024). Bilateral Free Trade Agreements in Latin America in the Context of China’s Struggle for Global Leadership. Analiz i prognoz. Zhurnal IMEMO RAN. No. 4, pp. 19–29 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20542/afij-2024-4-19-29.

13. Roncal Vattuone X. (2022). The White Paper: China’s Policy Toward Latin America and the Caribbean and Its Implementation in the Action Plans of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. Conjeturas Sociológicas. Vol. 10, no. 28, pp. 3–17 (in Spanish). Available at: https://revistas.ues.edu.sv/index.php/conjsociologicas/article/view/2339, accessed 15.03.2026.

14. Safronova E.I. (2018). China and the Developing World: Concepts and Current Practice of Relations (on the Example of Africa and Latin America). Moscow: FORUM Publ., 336 pp. (in Russian).

15. Safronova E.I. (2021). China – Latin American Relations in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. China in World and Regional Politics. History and Modernity. Vol. 26, no. 26, pp. 179–199 (in Russian). DOI: 10.24412/2618-6888-2021-26-179-199.

16. Safronova E.I. (2023). China – Latin American “Arc” in the Conditions of a Shift in the World Order. Latinskaya Amerika. No. 12, pp. 18–33 (in Russian). DOI: 10.31857/S0044748X0028573-9.

17. Sudarev V.P. (2019). Latin America in the Geopolitical Triangle of the USA, China and the European Union. Moscow: MGIMOUniversity Publ., 134 pp. (in Russian).

18. Sudarev V.P. (2023). Latin American Policy of the USA: New Turns in the First Quarter of the 21st Century. Okuneva L.S. (ed.). Moscow: MGIMO-University Publ., 170 pp. (in Russian).

19. Terui Villegas E.M.A., González García J. (2024). The China-CELAC Forum in the struggle for global economic hegemony between the United States and China in Latin America and the Caribbean. México y la Cuenca del Pacífico. Vol. 13, no. 39, pp. 9–37. DOI: 10.32870/mycp.v13i39.894.

20. Volosyuk O.V., Kozylov I.S. (2026). The Global South Partnership for Sustainable Development: China – CELAC Cooperation on Food Security. Vestnik RUDN. Seriia: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia. Vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 46–61 (in Russian). DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2026-26-1-46-61.

21. Volosyuk O.V., Quiroga Cremella C. (2025). China and the Countries of the Global South: Economic Cooperation between Uruguay and China at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Vestnik RUDN. Seriia: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, Vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 309–321 (in Russian). DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2025-25-2-309-321.

22. Wang Rui, Lukin A.L. (2025). China – Peru Cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative: The International Political Aspect. Transbaikal State University Journal. Vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 63–73 (in Russian). DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2025-31-4-63-73.

23. Yakovlev P.P. (2019). US and PRC in Latin America: Contours of Competition. Vestnik RUDN. Seriia: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia. Vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 47–58 (in Russian). DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2019-19-1-47-58.

24. Yakovlev P.P. (2023). The “Nearshoring” Model as a Concept of the New Economy of Latin America. World Economy and International Relations. Vol. 67, no. 2, pp. 93–103 (in Russian). DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-2-93-103.

25. Yakovlev P.P. (2024). Latin America in the Geostrategic Triangle of the USA – EU – PRC. Current Problems of Europe. No. 4, pp. 310–329 (in Russian). DOI: 10.31249/ape/2024.04.17.

26. Zeng Weiwei, Ding Mengli, Liu Hongsong (2023). China’s Health Silk Road Construction During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Global Public Health. Vol. 18, no. 1. DOI: 10.1080/17441692.2023.2185799.