US Tariff Policy and Its Implications for ASEAN Countries.

Abstract

The author analyzes a set of issues caused by the abrupt change in the tariff and, more broadly, trade policy of the Trump administration in relation to a large group of the US partners. This overview includes a brief description of the previous trading system and the model of development of emerging markets based on it, the requirements put forward by the United States, their possible impact and perception by the affected countries, primarily in Southeast Asia. Options for the “absorption” of new duties and the available scientific literature and practice in this regard are considered. It is stressed how new barriers can affect the competitiveness and specialization of Southeast Asian countries’ exports to the United States. The content of trade deals ultimately imposed by Washington is analyzed in detail using the example of Indonesia. In the end, the essence and consequences of the transit of Chinese goods through Southeast Asian countries, primarily Vietnam, to the United States, for which the weakening hegemon threatens them with additional taxation and sanctions, are revealed. It is predicted that those countries that have used the United States as their largest export market and will submit to pressure, expect a sharp drop in bilateral trade and a slowdown in economic development in general. The author comes to the conclusion that global trade, which is being reshaped by Washington to suit its own selfish interests, is facing a serious crisis, and developing countries will be able to resist the onset of a new colonialism only through joint efforts within the framework of BRICS and other associations of the global South.