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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">centero</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2542-0240</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2587-9324</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Center for Crisis Society Studies</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31249/kgt/2025.04.04</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">centero-1974</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>АЗИЯ: ВЫЗОВЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ASIA: CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Тарифная политика США и ее последствия для стран АСЕАН</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>US Tariff Policy and Its Implications for ASEAN Countries.</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6988-0139</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мазырин</surname><given-names>В. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mazyrin</surname><given-names>V. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Моисеевич Мазырин, доктор экономических наук, руководитель Центра изучения Вьетнама и АСЕАН, главный научный сотрудник</p><p>Нахимовский проспект, д. 32, г. Москва, 117997</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir M. Mazyrin, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Head of the Centre for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies, Chief Researcher</p><p>Nakhimovsky Avenue, 32, Moscow, 117997</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">mazyrin_v@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт Китая и современной Азии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>08</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>65</fpage><lpage>84</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Мазырин В.М., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Мазырин В.М.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Mazyrin V.M.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1974">https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1974</self-uri><abstract><p>Автор анализирует комплекс вопросов, вызванных резкой сменой тарифной и (более широко) торговой политики администрации Дональда Трампа в отношении большой группы партнеров США. Дана краткая характеристика прежней системы торговли и сложившейся на ее основе модели развития новых рынков, представлены требования, выдвинутые США, оценено их возможное воздействие и восприятие пострадавшими странами, прежде всего в Юго-Восточной Азии. Рассмотрены варианты «погашения» новых пошлин и имеющаяся по этой теме научная литература, практика. Показано, как новые барьеры могут отразиться на конкурентоспособности и специализации экспорта стран ЮВА в США. Подробно разобрано предложенное Вашингтоном содержание торговых сделок на примере Индонезии. В заключение выявлены суть, гипотетические последствия транзита китайских товаров через страны ЮВА, прежде всего Вьетнам, в США. Сделан прогноз, что тем странам, которые использовали США как свой крупнейший экспортный рынок, грозят резкое падение двустороннего товарооборота и снижение темпов экономического развития в целом. Автор приходит к выводу, что мировой торговле под воздействием этих мер Вашингтона грозит серьезнейший кризис и развивающиеся страны смогут противостоять дискриминации только совместными усилиями в рамках БРИКС и других объединений Глобального Юга.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The author analyzes a set of issues caused by the abrupt change in the tariff and, more broadly, trade policy of the Trump administration in relation to a large group of the US partners. This overview includes a brief description of the previous trading system and the model of development of emerging markets based on it, the requirements put forward by the United States, their possible impact and perception by the affected countries, primarily in Southeast Asia. Options for the “absorption” of new duties and the available scientific literature and practice in this regard are considered. It is stressed how new barriers can affect the competitiveness and specialization of Southeast Asian countries’ exports to the United States. The content of trade deals ultimately imposed by Washington is analyzed in detail using the example of Indonesia. In the end, the essence and consequences of the transit of Chinese goods through Southeast Asian countries, primarily Vietnam, to the United States, for which the weakening hegemon threatens them with additional taxation and sanctions, are revealed. It is predicted that those countries that have used the United States as their largest export market and will submit to pressure, expect a sharp drop in bilateral trade and a slowdown in economic development in general. The author comes to the conclusion that global trade, which is being reshaped by Washington to suit its own selfish interests, is facing a serious crisis, and developing countries will be able to resist the onset of a new colonialism only through joint efforts within the framework of BRICS and other associations of the global South.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>тарифная политика Трампа</kwd><kwd>торговая система эпохи ВТО</kwd><kwd>партнеры США в Юго-Восточной Азии</kwd><kwd>последствия новых пошлин</kwd><kwd>содержание торговой сделки</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Trump’s tariff policy</kwd><kwd>trade system under WTO rule</kwd><kwd>US partners in Southeast Asia</kwd><kwd>consequences of new duties</kwd><kwd>content of the trade deal.</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Мазырин В.М. 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