Avoiding Sovereign Debt Crisis in the US and EU by Creative Changes in Key Budgetary Indicators and Inflation
https://doi.org/10.31249/kgt/2022.01.11
Abstract
Pandemia COVID-19 has increased the budget deficits and public debts of the US and EU countries to a record, with the impossibility of their traditional reduction without economic and social problems. The purpose of this study is to systematize tactical budget solutions to prevent a decline in GDP and a sovereign debt crisis, not structural ones. The research methodology is a comparative analysis of the main budget documents of the United States, the European Union, Germany, Canada, as well as the publications on the budgetary policy of the IMF and OECD. The results are systematized as follows: (1) declarative budget balance in the medium term and postponing real deals; (2) PR of small development expenditures and their comparison over 5-10 years with huge annual budget deficits; (3) emphasis on net and public government debt, net of reserves and debt to central banks; (4) shifting part of the sovereign debt to state owned corporations and off-budget funds; (5) accelerating inflation and maintaining low rates on government bonds, inflation stimuli of GDP and tax revenues; (6) freeze in growth or slow indexation of budget expenditures against the backdrop of a surge in inflation. Thus, systematized budget decisions to manipulate the main budget indicators will give a delay of several years for the elaboration and start of implementation of structural reforms, which have yet to be detailed.
Keywords
fiscal stimulus,
development budget,
quasi-sovereign debt,
GDP inflation,
indexation,
creative accounting
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared based on the results of research in 2021, carried out at the expense of budgetary funds on the state order of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
About the Author
S. V. Anureev
Financial University under Government of Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergei V. Anureev
25993, Leningradskiy Ave. 49, Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Anureev S.V. Avoiding Sovereign Debt Crisis in the US and EU by Creative Changes in Key Budgetary Indicators and Inflation. Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law. 2022;15(1):224-244. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31249/kgt/2022.01.11
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