GUAM Activity in the Post-Soviet Space: Intentions, Results, Prospects

Integration processes in the post-Soviet space actualize the topic of several individual organizations prospects considering current trends on the international scene, particularly the ODED-GUAM. This formation is specific because it was initially created without the participation of the Russian Federation and also formed as an alternative to the Common-wealth of Independent States and other integration projects where the leading role was recognized for the Russian Federation.

The study consists of two parts. The first part examines the development process of the ODED-GUAM organization and high-lights the main stages of its existence. The transformation of the conceptual ideas of the organization’s development from a global to a local actor in world politics was also mentioned in the article. The study conducts a broad analysis of the organization’s source base, evaluates the results that the organization has achieved and the reasons of its composition change.

The second part of the study is devoted to the analysis of the prospects for the development of this organization from the standpoint of neorealism (structural realism) taking into account the combination of endogenous and exogenous factors.

The totality of moments related to the specifics of the ODED-GUAM conceptual component evolution, the episodic nature of its activities, the presence of the internal conflict of interests among participating countries, the leading international actors positions towards the organization, allows us to consider the integration entity is mostly the artificial construct that unified states that were for one reason or another out of key integration projects of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space. It is also relevant to consider the ODED-GUAM as a tool for promoting the interests of such actors as the United States and the EU in the post-Soviet space, as an instrument of information, ideological, and economic pressure on Russia and its partners in integration entities.

In fact, the prospects of the ODEDGUAM organization are directly dependent on the position and policy of external actors who consider this organization as one of the platforms to influence the Russian Federation as well as the People’s Republic of China and the integration projects implemented by these countries.

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