centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.01.03centero-993Research ArticleОсобенности современного экономического развитияSpecifics of Modern Economic DevelopmentCOVID-19: От краткосрочной национальной устойчивости к среднесрочной многосторонней новой нормеCOVID-19: From Short Term National Resilience to Medium Term Multilateral New Normalhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5821-6707СветличичМ.SvetličičM.

Марьян  Светличич, почетный профессор, факультет социальных наук

Kardeljeva pl., 5, 1000, Ljubljana

Marjan Svetličič, Professor Emeritus, Faculty of Social Sciences

Kardeljeva pl., 5, 1000, Ljubljana 

marjansvetlicic@siol.netУниверситет ЛюбляныСловенияUniversity of LjubljanaSlovenia2022170920221515076Copyright © Светличич М., 20222022Светличич М.Svetličič M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/993

Коронавирус COVID-19 потряс мир и заставил нас пересмотреть наши стратегии развития и всю системную структуру. Хотя глобализация способствовала пандемии, деглобализация не восторжествует. Глобализация будет, скорее, трансформирована, чтобы способствовать позитивным трендам и уменьшать/устранять ее негативные последствия. Пандемия, помимо негативных последствий (распространение вируса), продемонстрировала некоторые очень позитивные стороны глобализации, такие как научное сотрудничество. Повышение устойчивости стало главной стратегией человечества не только с точки зрения сдерживания пандемии, но и с точки зрения ее предотвращения в долгосрочной перспективе. Сочетание сдерживания и заблаговременного предотвращения пандемий выглядит наилучшей стратегией, потому что вирусы никуда не исчезнут, оставшись среди нас. Это можно сделать, разрешив неразрешимую с точки зрения Родрика трилемму между автономией, глобализацией и демократией как на национальном, так и на многостороннем уровне. На основе возможных сценариев развития событий в будущем мы демонстрируем, какие многосторонние решения необходимы для упреждающего создания стабильной и эффективной основы для корректировки и перестройки стратегий и поведения всех агентов (отдельных лиц, фирм и государств), причем исходя из существующих рамок. Такая многосторонняя структура должна оставлять достаточно места для национальных действий, когда они лучше соответствуют национальным приоритетам, и для заполнения пробелов, если международные учреждения не смогут добиться успеха в решении новых задач. Требуются переосмысление наших взглядов и теорий, а также новые виды образования и обучения для создания новых компетенций микроагентов.

COVID-19 has shaken the world and forced us to rethink our development strategies and the whole systemic framework. Although globalization facilitated the pandemic, deglobalization will not prevail. Globalization will be rather transformed to promote positive and reduce/eliminate its negative effects. Pandemic has, apart from negative effects (spreading the virus), demonstrated some very positive sides of globalization like scientific cooperation. Enhancing resilience has become the main strategy of the mankind not only in terms of containing the pandemic but also in ex ante preventing it in the long run. A combination of containing and ex ante preventing the pandemics looks like then best strategy, because viruses are here to stay among us. It can be done by resolving Rodrik’s, to him, unresolvable trilemma, between autonomy, GLO and democracy on the national as well multilateral le vel. On the basis of possible future scenario developments, we demonstrate how multilateral solutions are a must to create the stable and effective framework for the adjustments and redesigning of the strategies and behaviour of all agents (individuals, firms and states) in a proactive way by thinking out of the existing boxes. Such a multilateral framework has to allow enough space for the national actions when they are better suited to national priorities and to fill the gaps, if international institution fail to be successful in addressing new challenges. Rethinking of our mind sets and theories are required and even new types of education and training for the creation of new competences of micro agents.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.