centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.01.01centero-991Research ArticleПолитические процессы в меняющемся миреPolitical Processes in the Changing WorldК методологии исследования мирового развития в долгосрочной перспективе: тень прошлого или роль личности?On the Methodology of Studying Long-Term World Development: The Shadow of the Past or the Role of Individuals?https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8504-3007ЛибманА. М.LibmanA. M.

Александр Михайлович Либман, доктор экономических наук, PhD (Economics), профессор восточно-европейской и российской политики

Garystraße 55, 14195 Berlin

Alexander Libman, Dr. Sc. (Economics), PhD (Economics), Professor of Russian and East European Politics

Garystraße 55, 14195 Berlin 

alexander.libman@fu-berlin.deБерлинский Свободный университетГерманияFreie Universität BerlinGermany202217092022151628Copyright © Либман А.М., 20222022Либман А.М.Libman A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/991

В современных общественных науках исследователи, как правило, воздерживаются от долгосрочных прогнозов и попыток построения «больших теорий» глобальной динамики – в центре внимания ученых находятся конкретные (и достаточно узкие) эмпирические исследования. В некоторых случаях, однако же, такие исследования могут имплицитно стать основой для формулировки обобщенного представления о мировом развитии. В настоящей статье обсуждаются два направления таких исследований, бурно развивающиеся в последнее десятилетие: исследования структурной устойчивости (постулирующие, что исторические факторы оказывают воздействие на современное политическое, экономическое и социальное развитие, даже несмотря на кажущиеся «исторические разрывы») и исследования личных характеристик политиков и бюрократов (утверждающие, что биография лиц, принимающих решения, способна повлиять на политическое развитие в не меньшей степени, чем структурные особенности общества). Выводы описываемых направлений во многом противоречат друг другу. В то же время исследовательская логика обоих подходов основана на схожих предпосылках. Оба направления используют количественные методы; выбор кейсов для исследования во многом определяется доступностью данных; в обоих случаях теоретическая основа исследований является относительно слабой; в обоих случаях избыток статей, подтверждающих выводы подходов, свидетельствует не только о потенциале исследовательских направлений, но и о проблемах стимулов в научном сообществе. В настоящей работе рассматриваются основные результаты, преимущества и недостатки обоих подходов и обсуждается их потенциал для изучения перспектив долгосрочного мирового развития.

Contemporary social sciences typically refrain from long-term forecasts and attempts at constructing “grand theories” of global dynamics – researches focus instead on specific (and rather narrow) empirical research questions. In some cases, however, these narrow studies could implicitly become foundations for generalized statements concerning the world development. This paper reviews two avenues of research of this type that are rapidly developing in the last decade – persistence studies (arguing that historical factors have an impact on contemporary political, economic and social development even in spite of apparent historical discontinuities) and studies of personal characteristics of politicians and bureaucrats (arguing that biographies of decision-makers can influence political development to the same extent as structural characteristics of the society). The conclusions of these approaches contradict each other but their research logic is built upon similar assumptions. Both approaches use quantitative methods; the choice of cases for research is driven to a large extent by the data availability; in both cases theoretical foundations of research are rather weak; in both cases the multitude of articles reflects not only the potential of the research approaches but also the problems of the incentives in the scientific community. This paper reviews the main conclusions, advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and discusses their potential for studying long-term development perspectives.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.