centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.23932/2542-0240-2020-13-5-10centero-690Research ArticleАзия: вызовы и перспективыAsia: Challenges and PerspectivesБлижний Восток в условиях второй волны коронакризисаThe Middle East in the Second Wave of the Coronavirus Crisishttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0556-6719БогачеваА. С.BogachevaA. S.

старший лаборант-исследователь, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

anastasia.s.bogacheva@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9669-4243ИбрагимовИ. Э.IbragimovI. E.

младший научный сотрудник, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

Junior Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

ibragimov.ie@imemo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6101-4199КожановН. А.KozhanovN. A.

кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

n_a_kozhanov@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1249-3634ЛазовскийС. О.LazovskiiS. O.

старший лаборант-исследователь, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

Senior Laboratory Assitant-Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

stas-jesin@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4596-4404СамарскаяЛ. М.SamarskaiaL. M.

младший научный сотрудник, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

Junior Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

saluma@imemo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5191-9090СвистуноваИ. А.SvistunovaI. A.

кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

PhD in History, Senior Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

isvistunova@imemo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7185-7990СурковН. Ю.SurkovN. Yu.

кандидат политических наук, старший научный сотрудник, Центр ближневосточных исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва, Российская Федерация

PhD in Politics, Senior Researcher, Center for the Middle East Studies

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow, Russian Federation

nsurkov@imemo.ruНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАНRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАНРоссияPrimakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202026112020135Влияние пандемии коронавируса на глобальные трансформации158–180Copyright © Богачева А.С., Ибрагимов И.Э., Кожанов Н.А., Лазовский С.О., Самарская Л.М., Свистунова И.А., Сурков Н.Ю., 20202020Богачева А.С., Ибрагимов И.Э., Кожанов Н.А., Лазовский С.О., Самарская Л.М., Свистунова И.А., Сурков Н.Ю.Bogacheva A.S., Ibragimov I.E., Kozhanov N.A., Lazovskii S.O., Samarskaia L.M., Svistunova I.A., Surkov N.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/690

В статье предпринята попытка дать оценку влиянию коронакризиса на ситуацию как в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки (БВСА) в целом, так и в отдельных странах. Анализ динамики основных экономических индикаторов показал, что регион переживает период стагнации – снижение темпов роста, сокращение деловой активности, усиление безработицы. При этом прослеживается тот факт, что в большинстве случаев пандемия не породила, а лишь усилила существовавшие негативные тенденции, для устранения которых нужны структурные трансформации. Особенно важно то, что пострадали не только относительно слабые в экономическом плане государства, но и страны, привыкшие опираться на высокие доходы от экспорта углеводородов. Вызывает тревогу наметившийся кризис модели развития стран Персидского залива. Еще одним трендом, который продемонстрировала вторая волна кризиса, стало достаточно быстрое обострение политических противоречий в ряде стран, что также может привести к значительным переменам в регионе.

This article attempts to assess the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the situation both in the MENA region as a whole and in particular countries. Analysis of the dynamics of the main economic indicators showed that the region is undergoing a period of stagnation - a decrease in growth rates, a decline in business activity, and an increase in unemployment. At the same time, it should be noted that in most cases the pandemic did not generate, but only intensified the existing negative trends, which require structural transformations. Especially important is the fact that not only economically relatively weak states have suffered due to the pandemic, but also countries that traditionally rely on high revenues from hydrocarbon exports. The emerging crisis of the development model of the Persian Gulf countries is alarming. Another trend demonstrated by the second wave of the crisis was the rapid growth of political tensions in a number of countries, which could also lead to significant negative changes in the region.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.