centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-6-6centero-547Research ArticleРоссийский опытRussian ExperienceВолновая природа пенсионных реформ. Первая волна. 1994–2008 гг.Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5568-4089ЖуковаТ. В.ZhukovaT. V.

кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник отдела международных рынков капитала

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва

PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher, 

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow

 

ttanya2001@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАНРоссияDepartment of International Capital Markets Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation201930122019126Глобальная инфраструктура в эпоху цифровизации130151Copyright © Жукова Т.В., 20192019Жукова Т.В.Zhukova T.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/547

В статье выдвигается гипотеза волновой природы пенсионных реформ под действием демографических и экономических факторов с начала 1990-х  гг. Принимая во внимание результаты предшествующих работ по данной тематике, статистического анализа, выявлен механизм формирования волн. Условия для начала волны пенсионных реформ создаются долгосрочными трендами и связаны с обострением демографических факторов (ускорение роста коэффициента возрастной зависимости и др.). Начало волны и ее динамика определяются действием макроэкономических шоков, формирующихся в фазе снижения бизнес-цикла. За ростом пенсионных реформ наступает период их замедления. Действует фактор временного торможения по реакции на макроэкономические шоки (решения о пенсионных реформах не принимаются мгновенно). Система приспосабливается к новым условиям до новой эскалации влияния демографических факторов.Количественный и качественный анализ реформ по странам дает возможность проверить выдвинутую гипотезу. Для этого разработан классификатор пенсионных реформ (67 позиций, с балльной оценкой глубины изменений), а также система оценки влияния экономических факторов через чувствительные для пенсионных систем макроэкономические индикаторы и связанные с ними шоки. По выборке из 24 стран сформирована совокупность пенсионных реформ за период с 1994 по 2019 г., выявлены две волны пенсионных реформ: 1990-е – 2008 гг. и 2009 г. – н.в., проведен детальный анализ первой волны пенсионных реформ 1994– 2008 гг. Подтверждена гипотеза волновой природы пенсионных реформ. Показано ядро преобразований в первую волну. Это снижение обязательств государства по пенсионному обеспечению и переложение рисков на население за счет ввода накопительных схем. Подтвержден тезис о том, что ввод второго уровня (накопительных схем) оказывает позитивный эффект только в странах с развитым финансовым рынком. Исследование второй волны пенсионных реформ и прогноз третьей волны будут рассмотрены в следующей статье.

The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Conditions for starting the wave of pension reforms established with long-term demographic trend in periods of tension (the higher growth rates of age dependency ratio and others). The start and dynamic of the wave are determined by macroeconomic shocks arise from decreasing phase of business-cycle. The growth phase of pension reforms are followed by the period of deceleration. There is a factor that slowdowns responses to macroeconomic shocks (the decisions about pension reforms are not accepted instantly). Pension system adjusts to new conditions until further tightening. Quantitative and quality analysis of pension reforms across countries would allow to test this hypothesis. To that end an appropriate instruments have been developed: the classifier of pension reform (67 items with scoring system to estimate the depth of the changes), evaluation system for economic factors influences via sensitive to pension systems indicators and associated macroeconomic shocks. A cross-section of 24 countries generates a mix of pension reforms for the period of 1994–2019, two waves of pension reforms (1990–2008 and 2009 – present) is revealed, the hypothesis of waves nature of pension reforms is confirmed. The heart of pension systems transformations in the first way is identified. These are lowering of government pensions obligations, shifting the risks from state to population with the introduction of DCschemes. The suggestions that the implementation of second pillar is positive only for countries with well-developed financial market.  The research of second-wave of pension reforms and projection of the third way will be dealt with in the next article.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.