centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-3-170-188centero-495Research ArticleТочка зренияPoint of ViewФормирующийся новый глобальный (бес)порядокThe Emerging New Global (Dis)Orderhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3198-0593МагриП.MagriP.

Вице-президент и директор

20121, Via Clerici, 5, Милан, Италия

Executive Vice President and Director

20121, Via Clerici, 5, Milano, Italy

paolo.magri@ispionline.itItalian Institute of International Political Studies (ISPI)ИталияItalian Institute of International Political Studies (ISPI)Italy201924112019123На пути к новому миропорядку170188Copyright © Магри П., 20192019Магри П.Magri P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/495

В этой статье мы впервые попытаемся проследить послевоенные сдвиги в балансе сил между рядом крупных держав в международной системе. Опираясь на ряд возможных претендентов в борьбе за власть на международной арене, мы утверждаем, что сегодня международная система переживает не относительно беспорядочное распространение власти из центра на периферию, а заметный подъем Китая, который, похоже, оставил позади остальной «развивающийся мир». Затем мы углубимся во внешнюю политику США и Китая, двух основных держав в этой, казалось бы, необиполярной системе. Мы видим, что риски конфронтации растут. С одной стороны, это связано с продолжающейся приверженностью США стратегии, ориентированной на «первенство», а не на стратегическую сдержанность. С другой стороны, внешняя политика Пекина становится все более напористой и уже не скрывается за риторикой «мирного подъема». В заключение мы покажем, что сдвиг в распределении международного влияния в сочетании со стратегическим курсом, избранным Китаем и США, ставит под угрозу хрупкие основы глобального управления. Риск состоит в том, что, вместо того чтобы вести нас к новому, но устойчивому глобальному порядку, переход приведет нас только назад: к миру, в котором правила игры соблюдаются менее строго, и где логика баланса сил и гонки вооружений еще больше набирает обороты.

In this paper, we first attempt to track post-WWII shifts in the balance of power between a number of big powers in the international system. By relying on a number of possible proxies for power in the international arena, we argue that what the international system is going through today is not a relatively indiscriminate diffusion of power from the centre towards the periphery, but a marked rise of China that seems to have left the rest of the “emerging world” behind. We then delve deeper into the foreign policies of the US and China, the two main powers in this seemingly neo-bipolar system. We find that risks of confrontation are rising. On the one hand, this is related to the US’s continued preference for a strategy bent on “primacy”, rather than on strategic restraint. On the other hand, Beijing’s foreign policy is growing increasingly assertive, and does not hide anymore within the rhetoric of the “peaceful rise”. We conclude by showing that this shift in international power, coupled by the grand strategies preferred by China and the US, are imperilling the fragile scaffolding of global governance. The risk is that, rather than leading us towards a new but sustainable global order, the transition will only lead us backwards: to a world in which rules are less confidently upholded, and where the logic of the balance of power and of arms races further gains momentum.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.