centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-6-56-67centero-371Research ArticleПолитические процессы в меняющемся миреPolitical Processes in the Changing WorldК вопросу о формировании антииранской стратегии Дональда ТрампаDonald Trump’s anti-Iranian StrategyШумилинА. И.ShumilinA. I.

Шумилин Александр Иванович - доктор политических наук, главный научный сотрудник, Отдел европейской безопасности.

125009, Москва, Моховая ул., д. 11, стр. 3.

Aleksandr I. Shumilin - DSс in Politics, Chief Researcher, Department of European Security.

11-3, Mokhovaya St., 125009, Moscow.

mideast@bk.ruШумилинаИ. В.ShumilinaI. V.

Шумилина Инна Викторовна - кандидат политических наук, старший научный сотрудник.

121069, Москва, Хлебный пер., д. 2/3.

Inna V.  Shumilina - PhD in Politics, Senior Researcher.

2/3,Khlebnyj Lane, Moscow, 121069.

mideast@bk.ruФедеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт Европы РАН.РоссияThe Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationИнститут США и Канады РАНРоссияInstitute for US and Canadian StudiesRussian Federation201825122018116Клуб ядерных держав в XXI столетии5667Copyright © Шумилин А.И., Шумилина И.В., 20182018Шумилин А.И., Шумилина И.В.Shumilin A.I., Shumilina I.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/371

На фоне сопряжения ряда кризисных ситуаций на Ближнем Востоке и в Персидском заливе (Сирия, Йемен, Иран) администрация  Дональда Трампа выстраивает базовую стратегию своего подхода к обозначенным конфликтам  и региону в целом. В ее центре  –  противостояние   с  Ираном, прежде  всего – противодействие его ядерной программе. Подходы к другим  конфликтам  отныне  соотносятся с логикой этой генеральной линии.  В частности, это может означать, что происходящее в Сирии воспринимается в Вашингтоне  в первую очередь в контексте намечающегося нарастания противоборства с Ираном, и только во вторую – в контексте собственно сирийского урегулирования.

Новая американская стратегия в отношении Ирана наталкивается на нескрываемое неприятие ее со стороны европейских партнеров Вашингтона, которые развернули кампанию  по противодействию  линии  Дональда  Трампа и сохранению достигнутых  в 2015 году с Ираном международных  договоренностей по ограничению его ядерной программы в обмен на постепенное снятие с него санкций. В ответ на выход США из договоренностей с Ираном Евросоюз задействовал финансово-экономические инструменты  с целью минимизации ущерба от американских санкций для европейских компаний («Блокирующий   статут»  и  так  называемый  «Механизм  особого назначения», призванный обеспечить финансовые расчеты с Тегераном). Вряд ли, однако, это противодействие  европейцев Соединенным  Штатам  окажется эффективным,  так как ставка Вашингтона на антииранскую  стратегию позволяет команде Трампа достичь многих из заявленных  им целей на Ближнем Востоке: мобилизовать  суннитское  сообщество,  сблизить  его с Израилем  и  в конечном счете восстановить  военно-стратегическое доминирование  в  зоне Персидского залива (контроль маршрутов нефтеперевозок).

Against  the  background  of the coupling of a number  of crisis in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf (Syria, Yemen, Iran) the Donald Trump  administration is elaborating its basic strategy toward those conflicts and toward the region as a whole. The centerpiece of the strategy is the task to counter Iran, foremost its nuclear program. From now on the American approaches to other regional crises are determined by this Anti-Iranian logic. It might mean in particular that the developments in Syria are being perceived in Washington primarily in context of the growing US confrontation with Iran. And only in the second turn – in context of seeking solution in Syria and for Syria itself.

The New American  strategy toward Iran came across open misunderstanding on the side of the Washington’s partners in Europe who launched a campaign with the aim to resist the Trump’s line as well as to keep on the world community’s deal with Iran concluded in  the year 2015 (JCPOA) which bears on restricting the size of the Iranian  nuclear program versus gradual lifting of international  sanctions from Iran. With intent to minimize  the damage from Trump’s withdrawal from the deal for the European companies in Iran the EU applied two defensive tools in the financial domain  – The Blocking Statute  and  The Special Purpose Vehicle pertaining to secure the financial transactions with  Tehran. Such a clear EU’s withstanding with the USA can hardly prove effective taking into account that the Washington’s stake on countering Iran seems to let Trump’s team to achieve many of the declared objectives in the Middle East. Among them – to mobilize the Sunni community  in the region, to make it get closer to Israel and finally to reestablish the military dominance in the Persian Gulf with ability to control the oil export’s roots there.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.