centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.23932/2542-0240-2016-9-4-18-56centero-281Research ArticleСтатьиОценка вероятности войны: сходства и различия между Европой в 1914 г. и Восточной Азией в 2014 г.Assessing the danger of war: parallels and differences between Europe in 1914 and East Asia in 2014КраузеИоахимKrauseJoachim

профессор, заведующий кафедрой международных отношений

professor, Head of the Chair of International Relations

Университет КиляГерманияUniversity of KielGermany201623072018941856Copyright © Краузе И., 20182018Краузе И.Krause J.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/281

В статье рассматриваются структурные сходства между стратегической ситуацией в Европе летом 1914 года и в Восточной Азии в настоящее время, причем особое внимание уделяется вероятности начала крупномасштабной войны. Автор анализирует сходства, связанные с характером международной системы: так, ставится вопрос о том, является ли современная международная система открыто анархичной или же характеризуется тем, что ее основные участники обладают более или менее ясным пониманием механизмов и институтов, необходимых для поддержания мира и организации экономического обмена. В статье рассматриваются внутренние факторы (национализм, демократические, авторитарные или полудемократические режимы) и военная динамика с учетом особенностей географии и доступности военной техники и военных технологий. Рассматриваются также возможные сценарии военной эскалации. Особое внимание уделяется го сударствам, изолировавшим себя от внешнего окружения и располагающим военными средствами, которые могли бы позволить им одержать быструю победу над потенциальным противником. Автор приходит к выводу, что хотя число сходств между Европой в 1914 году и современной Восточной Азией очень невелико, высокая степень милитаризации на Корейском полуострове и углубление военного соперничества между США и Китаем в регионе указывают на возможность начала крупного вооруженного конфликта в не слишком отдаленном будущем.

 

The article looks at structural analogies between the strategic situation in Europe in the summer of 1914 and in East Asia today, with particular emphasis on the probability of the outbreak of a major war. The author examines analogies regarding the nature of the international system, i.e. is the international system characterized by outright anarchy or by a more or less developed and institutionalized understanding among the main actors about the way to preserve peace and to organize economic exchange? The article addresses domestic factors (nationalism, democratic, authoritarian or semi-democratic regimes) and investigates military dynamics against the backdrop of geography and the availability of military equipment and technologies. Possible routes of military escalation are also discussed. Special attention is paid to states that have isolated themselves and that dispose of military means that might promise swift victory. The article comes to the conclusion that there are very few similarities between Europe in 1914 and East Asia today, but that both the high degree of militarization of the Korean peninsula and the evolving military competition between the US and China in the region do imply the possibility of a major armed conflict in a not too distant future.

 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.