centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2025.02.01centero-1728Research ArticleОсобенности современного экономического развитияSpecifics of Modern Economic DevelopmentПротекционистский вектор промышленной политики в условиях меняющегося миропорядкаProtectionist Trends in Industrial Policy amid a Changing Global Orderhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6009-434XХейфецБ. А.KheyfetsB. A.

Борис Аронович Хейфец, доктор экономических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник Центра постсоветских исследований

Нахимовский проспект, д. 32, г. Москва, 117997

Boris A. Kheyfets, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Researcher, Center for Post-Soviet Studies Institute of Economics

Nakhimovskiy Avenue, 32, Moscow, 117997

bah412@rambler.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5951-9091ЧерноваВ. Ю.ChernovaV. Yu.

Вероника Юрьевна Чернова доктор экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Центра постсоветских исследований

Нахимовский проспект, д. 32, г. Москва, 117997

Veronika Yu. Chernova, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Leading Researcher, Center for Post-Soviet Studies Institute of Economics

Nakhimovskiy Avenue, 32, Moscow, 117997

veronika_urievna@mail.ruИнститут экономики РАНРоссияRussian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202512092025182623Copyright © Хейфец Б.А., Чернова В.Ю., 20252025Хейфец Б.А., Чернова В.Ю.Kheyfets B.A., Chernova V.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1728

Исследуется новый глобальный тренд экономического развития – курс на самодостаточную промышленную политику. Выявлены причины и особенности перехода к самодостаточной промышленной политике в условиях геополитической фрагментации мировой экономики и усиления конкуренции между крупными экономическими странами за глобальное технологическое лидерство. К такому курсу страны вынуждает рост неопределенности и непредсказуемости современного экономического развития, неприемлемый для долгосрочных инвестиций. Показано, что протекционистская политика и санкции оказали серьезное влияние на мировую торговлю, став драйвером переориентации торговых потоков глобальных экономических лидеров – США и Китая. Однако такая ситуация еще больше обострится в связи с эскалацией торговых войн, начатой с резкого повышения импортных тарифов США для более 180 стран в апреле 2025 г., вызвавшей жесткий ответ Китая. Это может вызвать разрушение сложившихся цепочек стоимости и глобальную рецессию мировой экономики, которая значительно увеличит издержки самодостаточной промышленной политики из-за роста производственных затрат, распыления и неэффективного использования финансовых и материальных ресурсов, ускорения инфляции, снижения технологического уровня производства и качества выпускаемых товаров. Сделан вывод о том, что тренд на национальную автономию и самодостаточную промышленную политику в условиях меняющегося миропорядка может оказаться сверхсложной задачей не только для главных игроков, но и для многих других участников глобальной экономики.

The new global trend of economic development – self-sufficiency and national autarky – is examined. The reasons and features of the transition to a self-sufficient industrial policy are identified in the context of the geopolitical fragmentation of the global economy and intensifying competition among major economies for technological leadership. Growing uncertainty and unpredictability in modern economic development, which are unacceptable for long-term investments, also drive this strategy. It is shown that protectionist policies and sanctions have had a serious impact on world trade, becoming a driver of the reorientation of trade flows between global economic leaders – the United States and China. However, this situation is likely to worsen due to the escalation of trade wars, which began with a sharp increase in US import tariffs on goods from more than 180 countries in April 2025 and provoked a strong response from China. This may lead to the breakdown of existing value chains and a global recession, significantly increasing the traditional costs of a self-sufficient industrial policy due to rising of production costs, dispersion and inefficient distribution of financial and material resources, accelerating of inflation, and a decline in the technological level and quality of goods. It is concluded that the trend toward national autonomy and self-sufficient industrial policy in the context of a changing world order may prove to be an extremely difficult task not only for the main players, but also for many other participants in the global economy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.