centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2024.03.06centero-1531Research ArticleАзия: вызовы и перспективыAsia: Challenges and PerspectivesИсследование сложного будущего Бангладеш в контексте региональной геополитической динамикиExploring the Intricate Future of Bangladesh in the Context of Regional Geopolitical Dynamicshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7008-4228Абул ХасанМ.Abul HasanM.

Мд АБУЛ ХАСАН, аспирант Аспирантской школы по международным отношениям и зарубежным региональным исследованиям

ул. Малая Ордынка, д. 17, г. Москва, 115184

Md ABUL HASAN, PhD Student, Doctoral School of International Relations and Regional Studies

Malaya Ordynka Street, 17, Moscow, 115184

habul@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University “Higher School of Economics”Russian Federation202431012025173110–127Copyright © Абул Хасан М., 20252025Абул Хасан М.Abul Hasan M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1531

Бангладеш служит важным связующим звеном между Южной и Юго-Восточной Азией и имеет важное стратегическое значение для всех основных региональных и глобальных игроков. Цель данной статьи – проанализировать будущее Бангладеш в контексте сложной региональной динамики и внешнеполитических реакций само́й страны на них. Автор исследует, как растущая геополитическая конкуренция и соперничество между крупными державами, наряду с их значительным влиянием на Бангладеш, порождают серьезные проблемы для страны. Чтобы понять стратегию Дакки в отношении этих держав, в исследовании проведен подробный обзор новейшей научной литературы, полевых исследований и углубленных интервью. Анализ показывает, что Бангладеш проводит умеренную внешнюю политику, чтобы поддерживать отношения со всеми ключевыми региональными и внерегиональными державами. Тем не менее способность Дакки эффективно проводить свою внешнюю политику сдерживается ее неспособностью создать рычаги влияния на доминирующие державы. В статье делается вывод о том, что влияние ключевых держав на политический ландшафт Бангладеш может привести к тому, что страна присоединится к определенному силовому блоку или сохранит нейтралитет в ближайшем будущем – в зависимости от меняющейся региональной и глобальной политической динамики. Таким образом, исследование предполагает, что, разрабатывая свои краткосрочные и долгосрочные планы и стратегии, Бангладеш может создать рычаги влияния и оставаться на правильном пути, не попадая в ловушку геополитики.

Bangladesh serves as a vital nexus between South and Southeast Asia, holding considerable strategic importance for all major regional and global players. This article aims to analyze Bangladesh’s future within the context of complex regional dynamics and its foreign policy responses. The author investigates how the rising geopolitical competition and rivalries among major powers, along with their significant impacts on Bangladesh, generate notable challenges for the nation. To understand Dhaka’s strategies towards these po- wers, the study has involved a detailed review of recent scholarly literature, fieldwork, and in-depth interviews. The analysis posits that Bangladesh adopts a moderate foreign policy to sustain hedging relations with all key regional and extra-regional powers. Nevertheless, Dhaka’s capacity to implement its foreign policies effectively is hampered by its inability to establish leverage over dominant powers. The article concludes that the influences of key powers in Bangladesh’s political landscape could lead the country to align with a specific power bloc or maintain neutrality in the near future, contingent upon the evolving regional and global political dynamics. Thus, the study suggests that by devising its short and long-term plans and strategies, Bangladesh can create leverage and remain on the right track without falling into the trap of geopolitics.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.