centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2024.02.03centero-1464Research ArticleОсобенности современного экономического развитияSpecifics of Modern Economic DevelopmentВозможные направления развития международной торговли в периметре глобальных цепочек создания стоимости в условиях новой реальностиPossible Contours of Developing International Trade in the Perimeter of Global Value Chains under the Conditions of New Realityhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3774-6311МальцевА. А.MaltsevA. A.

Андрей Александрович МАЛЬЦЕВ, доктор экономических наук, профессор, ведущий научный сотрудник

ул. Московская, д. 29, г. Екатеринбург, 620014

Andrei A. MALTSEV, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Leading Researcher

Moscovskaya Street, 29, Ekaterinburg, 620014

maltsevaa@list.ruИнститут экономики Уральского отделения РАНРоссияInstitute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2024081020241725479Copyright © Мальцев А.А., 20242024Мальцев А.А.Maltsev A.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1464

Начавшийся после мирового финансового кризиса 2008 г. переход от гиперглобализации к замедленной глобализации усилил скептицизм относительно будущего глобализации и мотивацию к корректировке архитектуры международной торговли. Последовавшая затем череда глобальных шоков – обострение американо-китайских торговых отношений, пандемия COVID-19, события, начавшиеся на Украине в 2022 г., – усугубили ситуацию, обострив проблему купирования негативных последствий разрыва цепочек поставок товаров и услуг. Цель статьи заключается в уточнении контуров реструктуризации и перспектив развития трансграничной торговли в условиях новой реальности: наложения глобальных шоков, нарастания геополитической неопределенности, усиливающейся фрагментации мировой экономики. Объектом исследования выступает межстрановая торговля в периметре глобальных цепочек создания стоимости (ГЦС), доля которых в мировой торговле возросла с 34,93 % в 1995 г. до 45,24 % в 2007 г. и после падения до 43,49 % в 2020 г., быстро восстановившись, увеличилась до 49,38 % в 2022 г. Анализ количественных и структурных сдвигов в ГЦС-торговле опирался на методику структурирования экспорта в категориях добавленной стоимости А. Борина и М. Манчини. Перспективы ГЦС-торговли оценивались с использованием методик выявления «рискованности» товаров в экспортно-импортном обороте С. Маджуне и В. Столценбурга, частоты трансграничных двусторонних взаимодействий С. Лианга, агломерации международной торговли К. Барис. Дана характеристика четырех основных в современных условиях вариантов укрепления сопротивляемости ГЦС: решоринга, диверсификации, регионализации и копирования. Получила подтверждение рабочая гипотеза о том, что все четыре рассмотренные траектории не являются взаимоисключающими и ни одна не предполагает полной автаркии страны. Сделан главный вывод, согласно которому негативные события в мировой экономике последнего десятилетия реконфигурировали торговые потоки, разогнали процессы регионализации глобального хозяйства, но не стали триггером деглобализации.

The transition from hyperglobalization to slowgbalization that began after the 2008 global financial crisis has increased skepticism about the future of globalization and motivation to adjust the architecture of international trade. The subsequent series of global shocks – the aggravation of the US-Chinese trade relations, the COVID-19 pandemic, the events in Ukraine in 2022-2023 – aggravated the situation, exacerbating the problem of stopping the negative consequences of the disruption of supply chains of goods and services. The purpose of the article is to clarify the contours of restructuring and outlooks for the development of cross-border trade in the context of new reality: the imposition of global shocks, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and increasing fragmentation of the world economy. The object of the study is the international trade in the perimeter of global value chains (GVCs), whose share in world trade increased from 34.93% in 1995 to 45.24% in 2007 and, after falling to 43.49% in 2020, quickly recovered and increased to 49.38% in 2022. The analysis of quantitative and structural shifts in GVC-trade was based on the methodology of structuring exports in the categories of value added by A. Borin and M. Mancini. The prospects for GVC-trade were assessed using the methods of identifying the “risk iness” of goods in the export-import turnover of S. Majune and V. Stolzenburg, the frequency of cross-border bilateral interactions of S. Liang, the agglomeration to global trade of K. Baris. The characteristics of the four main options for strengthening the resistance of GVCs in modern conditions are given – reshoring, diversification, regionalization and replication. The working hypothesis has been confirmed: all 4 considered trajectories are not mutually exclusive and none of them presupposes complete autarky of the country. The main conclusion is made, according to which the negative events in the global economy of the last decade reconfigured trade flows, accelerated the processes of regionalization of the global economy, but did not become a trigger for deglobalization.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.