centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2024.02.02centero-1463Research ArticleСоциальные трансформацииSocial TransformationsРиски развития российского человеческого капитала в контексте геоэкономической фрагментацииRisks for the Development of the Russian Human Capital in the Context of Geoeconomic Fragmentationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9449-6323ЧерненкоИ. М.ChernenkoI. M.

Илья Михайлович ЧЕРНЕНКО, кандидат экономических наук, доцент Института экономики и управления

ул. Мира, д. 19, г. Екатеринбург, 620062

Ilia M. CHERNENKO, PhD (Econ.), Associate Professor, Institute of Economics and Management

Mira Street, 19, Ekaterinburg,  620062

i.m.chernenko@urfu.ruФГАОУ ВО «Уральский федеральный университет им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина»РоссияUral Federal UniversityRussian Federation202408102024172Глобальная турбулентность при смене мироустройства3153Copyright © Черненко И.М., 20242024Черненко И.М.Chernenko I.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1463

Геополитическая напряженность, растущее санкционное давление, неравенство и замедление глобализации выступают сигналами усиления фрагментации мировой экономики, однако исследования ее социальных последствий остаются единичными. Целью данного исследования является идентификация рисков развития российского человеческого капитала в контексте геоэкономической фрагментации. Методы исследования включают системный обзор литературы и сравнительный анализ блоков стран по ключевым показателям развития технологий и человеческого капитала по данным Всемирного банка в период с 2011 по 2022 г. На основе политических предпочтений и уровня социально-экономического развития среди 149 развитых и развивающихся стран выделены и проанализированы западный, восточный и нейтральный блоки. Результаты показали, что блоки существенно отличаются по уровню развития человеческого капитала и индикаторам технологического развития; Россия обладает преимуществами в формальном образовании на уровне стран западного блока, однако показатели здоровья населения и удельные инвестиции в науку и образование остаются на сравнительно низком уровне. Ключевыми рисками в контексте фрагментации выступают дальнейшее обесценение человеческого капитала, потери, связанные с миграцией и капиталом здоровья, снижением доли высокотехнологичных секторов в структуре добавленной стоимости и удельного количества научных кадров.

Geopolitical tensions, increasing sanction pressure, inequality, and the slowdown of globalization serve as signals of fragmentation in the world economy. However, research on the social consequences of fragmentation remains limited. This study aims to identify the risks to the development of the Russian human capital in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation. Research methods include a systematic literature review and a comparative analysis of the country blocks based on the key indicators of technology development and human capital using World Bank data from 2011 to 2022. Based on political preferences and the level of socio-economic development, Western, Eastern, and Neutral blocks were identified and analyzed among 149 advanced and emerging economies. The results showed significant differences among the blocks in the level of human capital development and indicators of technological development. Russia has advantages in formal education at the level of Western block countries; however, health indicators of the population and the share of investment in science and education remain relatively low. Key risks in the context of fragmentation include further devaluation of human capital, losses associated with migration and health capital, a decrease in the share of high-tech sectors in the structure of value-added, and the proportion of scientific personnel

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.