centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.06.09centero-1304Research ArticleАзия: вызовы и перспективыAsia: Challenges and PerspectivesПолитическая экономия властных отношений и управления в Афганистане (2001–2021 гг.)Political Economy of Power and Governance in Afghanistan (2001–2021)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2928-8058ЕлагинД. П.ElaginD. P.

Денис Павлович Елагин - преподаватель кафедры мировой экономики МГИМО; ассистент кафедры теории и истории международных отношений РУДН

МГИМО МИД, проспект Вернадского, д. 76, г. Москва, 119454РУДН, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, д. 6, г. Москва, 117198

Denis P. Elagin - Lecturer, Chair of World Economy, MGIMO; Assistant Teacher, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, RUDN

MGIMO-University, Vernadskogo Avenue, 76, Moscow,  119454RUDN, Miklukho-Maklaya Street, 6, Moscow, 117198

d.elagin@my.mgimo.ruМГИМО МИД России; Российский университет дружбы народовРоссияMGIMO-University; Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN)Russian Federation202228102023156Трансформация мироустройства: национальные и трансрегиональные аспекты171195Copyright © Елагин Д.П., 20232023Елагин Д.П.Elagin D.P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1304

В статье рассматривается становление и трансформация политической экономии властных отношений и управления в  Афганистане в период после проведения операции «Несокрушимая свобода» и до повторного захвата власти движением «Талибан» в  августе 2021  г. Для этого автором применяется политэкономический подход с опорой на институциональную теорию, в частности концепцию хрупких порядков закрытого доступа. Автором показано, что в период после 2001 г. в стране возникла именно такая система. Ее устойчивость обеспечивалась при выполнении ряда условий. Для этого требовалась масштабная поддержка из-за рубежа в виде финансовой и военной помощи, которая наполняла страну ресурсами, необходимыми для поддержания патрон-клиентских связей и перераспределения административной ренты. Кооптация правительством влиятельных агентов периферии страны позволяла обеспечивать стабильность системы в условиях ее высокой степени децентрализации, сложившейся по итогам продолжительной гражданской войны. Бывшие полевые командиры, занявшие формальные посты в  новой системе, обеспечивали лояльность периферии в обмен на сохранение своей автономии и доступ к  административной ренте. Угроза со стороны вооруженной оппозиции, прежде всего движения «Талибан», принуждала агентов к сотрудничеству и ограничивала рентоориентированное поведение участников системы. После 2014 г., в результате сокращения мандата и постепенного вывода иностранных войск, снижения объемов финансовой помощи, а также не самых удачных президентских выборов, эти условия постепенно нарушились. Поддержка со стороны внешних сил сократилась, отношения между центром и периферией ухудшились, причем угроза системе со стороны вооруженной оппозиции нарастала. Результатом стало нарушение равновесия системы и ее распад, что позволило движению «Талибан» захватить власть в Афганистане.

The article deals with the emergence and transformation of the political economy of power and governance in Afghanistan after the Operation Enduring Freedom and until the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. The author uses political economy approach rooted in institutional theory, particularly its idea of fragile limited access orders. The research shows that such an order emerged in Afghanistan after 2001. Its stability and equilibrium were conditional on several factors. First, a substantial amount of financial and military aid was required to support patronage networks and administrative rent that ensured loyalty to the government. The government co-opted some powerful agents of periphery thus aiding the stability of increasingly de-centralized system that originated during the years of civil war. Ex-warlords took positions in formal administration and ensured that the periphery stayed loyal to the government in exchange for retaining their autonomy and access to administrative rent. The insurgency threat helped foster cooperation and limited predatory behavior of the system’s agents. After 2014 as a result of the partial troops withdrawal and their more limited mandate in Afghanistan, reduced foreign aid and the 2014 presidential elections crisis the factors mentioned were no longer at play supporting the equilibrium. The external support decreased; center-periphery relations turned sour amid a growing insurgency threat. This resulted in a disequilibrium, and the system collapsed which allowed the Taliban to retake power in Afghanistan in August 2021.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.