centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.03.01centero-1070Research ArticleОсобенности современного экономического развитияSpecifics of Modern Economic DevelopmentТехнологические скачки: теория и международные ИКТ-практикиTechnological Leapfrogging: Theory and International ICT Practiceshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3402-3433ДежинаИ. Г.DezhinaI. G.

Ирина Геннадиевна Дежина, доктор экономических наук, руководитель департамента анализа научно-технологического развития

Большой бульвар, д. 30, стр. 1, г. Москва, 121205

Irina G. Dezhina, Doctor of Sciences in Economics, Head of Department on Analysis of Science & Technology Development

Bolshoy Bulvar, 30, str. 1, Innovation Center “Skolkovo”, Moscow, 121205 

i.dezhina@skoltech.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6998-1060ЕгеревС. В.EgerevS. V.

Сергей Викторович Егерев, доктор физико-математических наук, главный научный сотрудник

Нахимовский проспект, д. 51/21, г. Москва, 117418

Sergey V. Egerev, Doctor of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Сhief Researcher, Center for Research Planning Studies

Nakhimovsky avenue, 51/21, Moscow, 117418 

segerev@gmail.comСколковский институт науки и технологий, Территория Инновационного центра «Сколково»РоссияSkolkovo Institute of Science and TechnologyRussian FederationИнститут научной информации по общественным наукам РАН (ИНИОН РАН)РоссияInstitute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAN)Russian Federation202215022023153623Copyright © Дежина И.Г., Егерев С.В., 20232023Дежина И.Г., Егерев С.В.Dezhina I.G., Egerev S.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1070

Технологический скачок – дискретный этап развития страны или отрасли, представляющий замену предшествующей технологии на принципиально новую. Понятие технологического скачка стало развиваться с середины 1980-х годов, однако общепринятого определения на сегодняшний день нет. Интерес к условиям и структуре технологических скачков усилился, когда выяснилось, что догоняющие страны и отрасли могут ускоренно развиваться путем непрерывного подражания и инноваций, минуя при этом адаптацию устаревших технологий и избегая инвестиций в предыдущие технологические системы.В статье на теоретическом материале и международном опыте развития информационно-коммуникационных технологий (ИКТ) анализируются условия, необходимые для технологического скачка. Выбор именно ИКТ обусловлен тем, что они являются признанными драйверами экономического роста и социального развития. Сегодня благодаря скачку в странах третьего мира формируются амбициозные планы развития сетей фиксированной связи нового поколения, перехода к стандарту 5G, сервисам электронной торговли и электронного правительства.Исходя из мирового опыта, выделены факторы, необходимые для успешного технологического скачка, и анализируется потенциал его реализации в России. В условиях санкционного давления актуализируется не просто реверс-инжиниринг, а именно скачок, способный обеспечить технологическую самостоятельность. Показано, что в России частично созданы условия для технологического скачка в области 5G, а именно накоплен адаптационный потенциал в части технологий и подготовки кадров, кооперации науки и промышленности, есть возможности использования разработок и оборудования, а также условия для формирования благоприятного социотехнологического климата.

A technological leapfrogging is a discrete stage in the development of a country or industry, representing the replacement of the previous technology with a fundamentally new one. The concept of technological leapfrogging has been developing since the mid 1980s, but still there is no generally accepted definition. The interest in the conditions and structure of technological leaps grew when it became clear that lagging countries and industries could develop rapidly by continuous imitation and innovation, jumping over obsolete technologies and avoiding investment in previous technological generations.The article relies on theoretical studies of leapfrogging and international experience in the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) for analysis of the conditions necessary for technological leaps. The ICT play a recognized role in economic growth and social development. Today, the catching-up countries have ambitious plans for ICT development, including next-generation fixed communications networks, 5G standard, e-commerce services and e-government.Based on the analysis of global experience, we define conditions for a successful technological leapfrogging in Russia and discuss the potential for its implementation. In the conditions of sanctions, it is important not just to reverse-engineer, but to make a technological leap in order to ensure technological self-sufficiency. Russia has partially created conditions for 5G technological leapfrogging by accumulating adaptation potential in terms of technology, equipment and personnel; developing science-industry cooperation; and creating conditions for favorable socio-technological climate.

догоняющее развитиетехнологический скачокнаукаподрывные инновациинаучнопроизводственная кооперацияинформационно-коммуникационные технологиимировой опытточки обмена интернет-трафикомдата-центрыРоссияcatching-up developmenttechnological leapfroggingsciencedisruptive innovationsscientific-industrial cooperationinformation and communication technologiesglobal experienceIXP pointsdata centersRussiaИсследование теоретических аспектов технологического скачка и анализ российского контекста проведены Дежиной И.Г. в рамках гранта Российского фонда фундаментальных исследований № 20-011-00187. Исследование мирового опыта в сфере ИКТ выполнено Егеревым С.В. по госзаданию ИНИОН РАН.The study of the theoretical aspects of technological leapfrogging and the analysis of the Russian context conducted by Irina Dezhina were supported by the grant from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research no. 20-011-00187. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.