centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.02.02centero-1046Research ArticleРесурсная база мирового развитияThe Resource Base of World DevelopmentДолговременные сценарии развития мировой электроэнергетики: основные тенденции и неопределенностиLong-term Scenarios of Global Power Industry Development: Main Tendencies and Uncertaintieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9742-5026РезниковаО. Б.ReznikovaO. B.

Оксана Бениаминовна РЕЗНИКОВА, кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник Центра энергетических исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва

Oksana B. REZNIKOVA, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow

rezxana@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5630-0799СиницынМ. В.SinitsynM. V.

Михаил Владимирович СИНИЦЫН, научный сотрудник Центра энергетических исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва

Mikhail V. SINITSYN, Research Fellow

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow

sinitsyn@imemo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5901-5993ГахокидзеИ. З.GakhokidzeI. Z.

Ирине Зурабовна ГАХОКИДЗЕ, младший научный сотрудник Центра энергетических исследований

117997, Профсоюзная ул., д. 23, Москва

Irine Z. GAKHOKIDZE, Junior Research Fellow

117997, Profsoyuznaya St., 23, Moscow

irinagakh@imemo.ruНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАНРоссияCenter for Energy Research Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2022080120231523348Copyright © Резникова О.Б., Синицын М.В., Гахокидзе И.З., 20232023Резникова О.Б., Синицын М.В., Гахокидзе И.З.Reznikova O.B., Sinitsyn M.V., Gakhokidze I.Z.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1046

Анализ сценариев развития мировой электроэнергетики в долгосрочной перспективе в общем контексте глобального экономического развития позволил авторам заключить, что перспективная динамика развития электроэнергетики в главных центрах мирового производства и потребления определяется сложным комплексом разнородных факторов, из которых решающее значение имеют: во-первых, наделенность первичными энергоресурсами; во-вторых, уровень и тип экономического развития; в-третьих, возможности государства мобилизовать финансовые и инвестиционные ресурсы для развития новых возобновляемых источников энергии; в-четвертых, стратегии национального экономического и энергетического развития. В зависимости от этих факторов в обозримой перспективе страны останутся на очень разных стадиях энергетического перехода. Универсальной модели энергетического перехода не существует.

Scenario analysis of world electricity in the long-term perspective within the general context of global economic growth allowed the authors to conclude that perspective dynamics of electricity in the world leading production and consumption centers will be decisively influenced by complex and heterogeneous factors, including: first, primary energy resources endowment; second, level and type of economic development; third, countries capacities to mobilize financial and investment resources necessary for promotion of new renewable energy sources; fourth, national economic and energy strategies. Depending on these factors countries will remain at very different stages of energy transition at the foreseeable future. There is no a universal model of energy transition.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.