centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.01.15centero-1005Research ArticleВ рамках дискуссииUnder DiscussionЭкспроприация в XXI в. – новый вызов для исследований политического рискаExpropriation in the 21st Century – New Challenge for Political Risk Analysishttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4290-4983БордовскихА. Н.BordovskikhA. N.

Анастасия Николаевна Бордовских, кандидат политических наук, старший научный сотрудник

119992, Ломоносовский просп., д. 27, к. 4, Москва

Anastasia N. Bordovskikh, PhD in Politics, Senior Researcher

119991, Lomonossovsky prospect 27/4 Moscow 

a_bordovskikh@hotmail.comФакультет государственного управления МГУ им. М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияSchool of Public Administration of the Moscow University LomonosovRussian Federation202217092022151298313Copyright © Бордовских А.Н., 20222022Бордовских А.Н.Bordovskikh A.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1005

Экспроприация рассматривается в статье как политический риск для международного бизнеса, обострившийся в период построения странами третьего мира новых стратегий постколониального развития. С завершением третьей волны демократизации, падением Берлинской стены и активной либерализацией новых рынков исследовательский интерес к политическим рискам, в том числе угрозам экспроприации иностранных собственников, отошел на второй план, уступив место экономическим факторам инвестиционного климата. Тем не менее на фоне усиления геополитической турбулентности и нарастания торговых и дипломатических конфликтов в последние годы политическая составляющая заново набирает свой вес в оценке страновых рисков.В продолжение оживленных научно-экспертных дискуссий о возврате политического риска настоящая статья обращается к вопросу актуальности угроз экспроприации и раскрывает их современную природу, в том числе развитие неявных механизмов государственных отчуждений и изменение их географического распространения, не ограниченного границами развивающихся рынков. На основе прикладного анализа арбитражной практики в работе обосновывается непреходящая значимость как прямой, так и косвенной экспроприации. Однако эволюция форм, трансформация политических источников и мотиваций государственных отчуждений в современных условиях требуют соответствующей выработки новой методологии исследования данного вида политического риска. Вместе с тем приведенный в статье обзор научных трудов обнаруживает ощутимый пробел на данном направлении и ставит вопрос о назревшей сегодня необходимости адаптации теоретического подхода к анализу современных конфигураций политического риска экспроприации.

The article treats expropriation as the main political risk for international business, which was scientifically conceptualized following the decolonization period and marked by the shift in development strategies of the third world countries. With the end of the third wave of democratization, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the active liberalization of new markets, research interest in political risks, including threats of expropriation of foreign capital, weakened, giving way to mainly economic indicators of the investment climate. In recent years, however, with the increasing geopolitical turbulence and escalating trade and diplomatic conflicts, political factors are being brought into the foreground of country risk profiles.In line with the expert discussions on the return of political risk, this article addresses the issue of the relevance of expropriation threats and reveals their modern nature. It focuses on the development of implicit mechanisms of state dispossessions and their current geographical distribution, which is no longer limited by the emerging markets. Based on the analysis of international arbitration cases, the article proves the modern relevancy and importance of both direct and creeping expropriations. It also stresses the necessity of the adaptation of political risk analysis methodology in accordance with the recent evolution of government takings, marked by the modification of its sources and fundamental political motivations. At the same time, the conducted analysis of scientific research in Russia reveals a noticeable gap in this direction and emphasizes this urgent need for reconsideration of political risk theory in order to bring it in line with current nature of direct and indirect forms of expropriation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.