centeroКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, правоOutlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law2542-02402587-9324Center for Crisis Society Studies10.31249/kgt/2022.01.11centero-1001Research ArticleС точки зрения экономикиFrom the Point of EconomicsНедопущение кризиса государственного долга в США и Еврозоне за счет креативного изменения основных бюджетных показателей и инфляцииAvoiding Sovereign Debt Crisis in the US and EU by Creative Changes in Key Budgetary Indicators and Inflationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4506-6305АнуреевС. В.AnureevS. V.

Сергей Владимирович Ануреев, доктор экономических наук, профессор департамента общественных финансов

125993, ГСП-3, Ленинградский проспект, д. 49, Москва

Sergei V. Anureev

25993, Leningradskiy Ave. 49, Moscow 

anureev@bk.ruФинансовый университет при Правительстве РФРоссияFinancial University under Government of Russian FederationRussian Federation202217092022151224244Copyright © Ануреев С.В., 20222022Ануреев С.В.Anureev S.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/1001

Пандемия коронавируса COVID-19 рекордно увеличила бюджетный дефицит и государственный долг США и стран Евросоюза и сделала невозможным их традиционное сокращение без экономических и социальных проблем. Целью данного исследования является систематизация тактических бюджетных решений для недопущения спада ВВП и долгового кризиса, не относящихся к структурной политике. Методологией исследования является сравнительный анализ основных бюджетных документов США, Евросоюза, Германии, Канады, а также публикаций по бюджетной политике МВФ и ОЭСР. Результаты исследования показывают: (1) декларативность сбалансированности бюджетов в среднесрочной перспективе и откладывание решения проблемы дефицитов из года в год; (2) пиар небольших расходов развития и их сопоставление за 5–10 лет с огромными годичными бюджетными дефицитами; (3) упор на нетто- и рыночный государственный долг, т.е. за вычетом резервов и долга перед центробанками; (4) перекладывание части государственного долга на государственные корпорации и внебюджетные фонды; (5) ускорение инфляции и сохранение низких ставок по государственным облигациям, инфлирование ВВП и налоговых доходов; (6) заморозку или медленную индексацию бюджетных расходов на фоне скачка инфляции. Таким образом, систематизированные бюджетные решения по манипуляции основными бюджетными показателями дадут отсрочку в несколько лет на проработку и начало реализации структурных реформ, которые еще предстоит детализировать и внедрить.

Pandemia COVID-19 has increased the budget deficits and public debts of the US and EU countries to a record, with the impossibility of their traditional reduction without economic and social problems. The purpose of this study is to systematize tactical budget solutions to prevent a decline in GDP and a sovereign debt crisis, not structural ones. The research methodology is a comparative analysis of the main budget documents of the United States, the European Union, Germany, Canada, as well as the publications on the budgetary policy of the IMF and OECD. The results are systematized as follows: (1) declarative budget balance in the medium term and postponing real deals; (2) PR of small development expenditures and their comparison over 5-10 years with huge annual budget deficits; (3) emphasis on net and public government debt, net of reserves and debt to central banks; (4) shifting part of the sovereign debt to state owned corporations and off-budget funds; (5) accelerating inflation and maintaining low rates on government bonds, inflation stimuli of GDP and tax revenues; (6) freeze in growth or slow indexation of budget expenditures against the backdrop of a surge in inflation. Thus, systematized budget decisions to manipulate the main budget indicators will give a delay of several years for the elaboration and start of implementation of structural reforms, which have yet to be detailed.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.